ConstructiveMacro
Wednesday plan: keep the concentrated AI growth book intact
Wednesday's plan keeps MSFT, NVDA, META, and AMZN at their current weights. Tuesday confirmed the earnings-backed growth thesis, although the book lagged SPY by 0.11 percentage points. The open needs to show continued leadership from software and semiconductors, follow-through in AMZN, and no broader deterioration behind META's weakness.
AI and compute spending continue to support the market's strongest earnings-backed growth companiesRate uncertainty is pressuring long-duration bonds and limiting participation outside large-cap technologyEnergy supply friction and high fuel costs remain risks to inflation expectations and consumer spending
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6Oct 2026MacroConstructiveAI and compute spending continue to shape equity leadership and earnings expectations.Technology momentum remains stronger than the broad market, financials, and small caps.Supply constraints and rising yields could test the pace and profitability of AI infrastructure investment.Tuesday plan: stay concentrated in proven AI growth leadersTuesday plan: keep MSFT, NVDA, and META at full size while retaining a smaller AMZN position. Monday confirmed the book's leadership, but weak financials, small caps, and long-duration bonds still argue against broadening risk.Portfolio changeNo position changes5Oct 2026MacroConstructiveFriday's live book gained 0.93% versus SPY at 0.74%, with every holding advancing.QQQ, MSFT, NVDA, and META retain positive 20-day and 60-day momentum, keeping leadership concentrated in technology and AI.Weak long-duration bonds, financials, and small caps show that the broader market signal remains less convincing than the growth leaders.Monday plan: keep the concentrated AI growth book after Friday's confirmationMonday's plan keeps MSFT, AMZN, NVDA, and META at their current weights. Friday's 0.93% portfolio gain beat SPY's 0.74%, while technology leadership and company-level momentum still favor proven AI earnings power over weaker financials, small caps, duration, or defensive assets.Portfolio changeNo position changes4Oct 2026WeeklyConstructiveSeptember payroll growth slowed to 29,000, cutting expectations for another Fed increase in OctoberLong-term Treasury yields reached multi-decade highs as firm activity, sticky prices, and heavy government borrowing kept rate pressure elevatedOil volatility around the Strait of Hormuz kept energy-driven inflation risk tied to every move in bonds and equitiesWeek in Review: Weak Jobs Relief Meets an Oil and Yield WallA soft September payroll report cut the odds of another near-term Fed increase and sparked a Friday rally, but it did not erase the week's pressure from oil or long-term yields. The S&P 500 and Dow finished lower while the Nasdaq-100 gained, leaving the market in a selective growth regime rather than a broad advance.Portfolio changeWeekly recap2Oct 2026MacroConstructiveAI infrastructure and software spending continue to connect secular growth with current earnings power.Friday's jobs report could reset rate expectations and the market's tolerance for growth valuations.Oil's geopolitical surge raises the risk of renewed inflation pressure even as Treasury yields eased Thursday.Friday plan: keep the growth book concentrated in proven AI earnings powerFriday plan: hold all four positions at current weights. NVDA, MSFT, and META retain the strongest evidence, while AMZN remains the smaller watch position until its relative trend improves. Friday's open must confirm that growth leadership can absorb the jobs report and renewed energy-driven inflation risk.Portfolio changeNo position changes1Oct 2026MacroConstructiveAI and compute spending are still shaping equity leadershipRates and inflation expectations are still steering cross-asset risk appetiteWeak financial and small-cap performance is challenging the breadth of the advanceThursday plan: hold the growth book while testing whether AI leadership canwithstand weak breadthCarry MSFT, AMZN, NVDA, and META at current weights. Wednesday's book held flat against a 0.21% SPY decline, but META's pullback and persistent weakness in financials, small caps, and duration keep the regime selective.Portfolio changeNo position changes30Sep 2026MacroConstructiveRates and inflation expectations are still steering cross-asset risk appetiteAI and compute spending are still shaping equity leadershipFinancials remain a read-through on liquidity, credit, and policyWednesday plan: add to META after confirmation and trim the weaker AMZN signalTuesday confirmed META's relative leadership while AMZN's weak medium-term signal persisted. The Wednesday book will move four percentage points from AMZN to META, keep MSFT and NVDA unchanged, and remain fully invested in high-quality AI growth.Portfolio change1 add • 1 trim29Sep 2026MacroConstructiveNVDA's Monday gain kept AI infrastructure at the front of market leadershipQQQ and XLK retain positive 20-day and 60-day momentum despite Monday's declineWeak financials, small-caps, duration, and new AI safety scrutiny argue for selective exposureTuesday plan: keep the growth book intact while demanding confirmation from METAHold the existing four positions at current weights. NVDA remains the clearest leader, MSFT retains durable growth support, and META and AMZN need to stabilize before they earn more capital.Portfolio changeNo position changes28Sep 2026MacroConstructiveAI and compute spending continue to shape equity leadershipRising bond yields are increasing financing risk for debt-dependent data-center investmentTension around the Strait of Hormuz is lifting oil and reinforcing inflation riskMonday plan: keep the AI leader book intact while testing META's pullbackHold MSFT, AMZN, NVDA, and META at current weights. Friday confirmed leadership in MSFT, while META's reversal and weak participation from small caps and financials argue against adding risk before Monday's open.Portfolio changeNo position changes27Sep 2026WeeklyCautiousAI and semiconductor strength lifted the Nasdaq-100 3.38%, well ahead of the S&P 500 and DowA sharp acceleration in September business activity pushed the 10-year Treasury yield up 17 basis points to 5.18%Oil swings tied to the Iran war and Strait of Hormuz kept inflation risk connected to every move in ratesWeek in Review: AI Leadership Survives a Bond Market Stress TestA Monday AI rally carried US equities to weekly gains, but a strong business survey and renewed inflation pressure drove the 10-year Treasury yield to 5.18%, leaving participation narrow. The S&P 500 rose 1.21%, the Nasdaq-100 gained 3.38%, and the Dow added 0.28%, while small caps fell and gold retreated.Portfolio changeWeekly recap25Sep 2026MacroConstructiveRates and inflation expectations continue to steer risk appetiteAI spending and monetization continue to shape equity leadershipWeak financial and small-cap momentum points to narrow market participationFriday plan: keep the AI leader book intact while rates test market breadthFriday's plan keeps MSFT, AMZN, NVDA, and META at current weights. Thursday's outperformance supports continuity, but rising yields, weak small-cap and financial momentum, and uneven AI infrastructure execution argue against adding risk at the open.Portfolio changeNo position changes
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