EURUSD stays constructive while 1.16267 holds on a higher-timeframe close, with 1.1800 the next meaningful upside reference if the current compression resolves higher.
EURUSDPrepConstructive
EURUSD Session Preparation - Bullish Continuation Setup Into U.S. PPI
EURUSD enters the session with a constructive long bias after a clean break above the 1.16267 range ceiling, but the setup now sits inside a tight H4 compression just ahead of U.S. PPI. The primary path is bullish continuation through 1.17391 toward 1.1800 if the breakout structure holds, while a hot inflation print is the clearest catalyst for a pullback into 1.16617-1.16267 support.
EURUSD
EURUSD remains above the 1.16267 breakout level with bullish daily structure intact
Reasoning
Directional Bias
Long. EURUSD broke decisively above its 6-week range ceiling at 1.16267 on Apr 7-8, driven by the Iran ceasefire collapsing USD safe-haven demand, and closed Friday at 1.17246 - the highest weekly close since early February. Five consecutive bullish daily closes with no distribution wicks confirm institutional accumulation, not a news spike. The DirectionalSkew output (high confidence, Apr 13 package) is unambiguous: bullish while price holds above 1.16267 on a daily close basis. H4 has been compressing in a 60-pip band (1.16858-1.17391) for two days - a classic post-impulse flag within the D1 trend.
Bias invalidated by an H4 close below 1.16267 (breakout failure) or a D1 close below 1.15924 (OB launch zone). The primary intraday risk is today's US PPI at 14:30 local - a hot core PPI print would trigger USD strength and could pull EURUSD back to 1.16617-1.16267 before the trend reasserts.
Regime & Market Context
W1 is trending bullish from the March correction low (1.14104), confirming its first higher high since January at 1.17391. D1 is in a confirmed impulsive phase: the BOS above 1.16267 on Apr 7 (69-pip body candle, open 1.15924 / close 1.16617) established the current swing; five daily closes held above it without a single revisit. H4 is compressing - ATR narrowing to 40-50 pips from the 100+ pip impulse phase, making higher lows (1.16858, 1.16871) within the range. This is a flag/pennant inside the D1 trend, consistent with bullish continuation.
The macro regime is USD structural weakness: DXY recovered to 99.02 on Sunday from sub-98 CPI-day lows, creating a mild Monday headwind, but the structural USD-weakness thesis remains intact while core inflation trends lower (2.6% core CPI) and the Fed/ECB rate differential narrows. This week's dominant events are PPI (today, 14:30 local), Fed Beige Book (Wednesday), and Retail Sales (Thursday) - all USD drivers. No EUR-specific catalyst expected from the ECB (on hold at 2.5%).
Key Levels
| Level | Type | Origin | Expected Reaction |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1.17391 | Resistance / Liquidity | Equal highs Apr 8 + Apr 10; H4 compression ceiling | Stop-hunt zone - sweep before real continuation typical |
| 1.18000 | Resistance | Psychological; prior Feb swing low area | First meaningful resistance above equal highs |
| 1.20815 | Resistance | January 2026 ATH | Ultimate weekly buy-side liquidity |
| 1.16858 | Support | H4 compression floor; Apr 10 higher low | Bounce expected; break targets 1.16617 |
| 1.16617 | Support | Apr 7 D1 close; H4 OB 1.16567-1.16661 (retested twice) | Key intraday support - PPI pullback magnet |
| 1.16267 | Support | 6-week range ceiling, now BOS level | D1 close below = breakout failure; bull thesis done |
| 1.15924 | Support / OB | Apr 7 D1 open; D1 bullish order block launch | Below here the entire rally is negated |
Buy-side liquidity above: 1.17391-1.17450 (breakout short stops), 1.18000-1.18100 (option gamma). Sell-side liquidity below: 1.16200-1.16267 (breakout buyer stops), 1.15900-1.15924 (OB base stops).
Market Structure
D1 structure is unambiguously bullish: confirmed HL at 1.14429 (Mar 29) followed by HH at 1.17391 (Apr 10) - the first HH since the January correction. Swing sequence: LL 1.14104 (Mar 13) -> LH 1.16396 (Mar 23) -> HL 1.14429 (Mar 29) -> HH 1.17391 (Apr 10). The D1 BOS above 1.16267 is the structural anchor - it must hold on a daily close basis for the bullish thesis to remain valid.
Active D1 bullish order block: 1.15218-1.15426 (Apr 5 last bearish daily - institutional accumulation before the breakout). Unfilled H4 FVGs: 1.16617-1.16714 (Apr 7-8 displacement gap, lower portion unvisited) and 1.15875-1.16676 (H1 Apr 7 spike gap, partially filled). H4 structure: HL at 1.16539 (Apr 9) and HH at 1.17391 (Apr 10) - higher-low sequence intact within the compression. For bullish continuation: H4 close above 1.17391 forms a new HH. For structural concern: H4 close below 1.16500 followed by a D1 close below 1.16267 shifts the trend.
Session Map
London (09:00-14:00 local) is the primary directional session for EURUSD. The institutional pattern during trending regimes: Asian range (30-50 pips, 02:00-09:00) is swept by London in the first 30-60 minutes (Judas swing), then price displaces in the true direction. The 09:00-11:00 window is the institutional initiation period.
Today: Monday open with a weekend DXY recovery to 99.02. Expect a potential short-term pullback toward the Asian lows in early London before direction establishes. The London/NY overlap (14:00-18:00 local) is the highest volatility window and coincides directly with US PPI at 14:30 local. Avoid new entries from 14:15-14:45 (spike risk +/-30-50 pips). Post-data direction that holds through 15:30 tends to carry for the session. NY solo (18:00-22:00) is management-only - avoid new entries unless PPI produces a clean structure.
Consumption & Order Flow
The breakout above 1.16267 was driven by institutional short-covering: COT data shows EUR spec net longs declined 36K contracts from the multi-year extreme net-short level - gross shorts collapsed, fresh long accumulation was modest. This means the short-squeeze fuel is partially spent; further gains require new long initiation rather than covering. Pace of appreciation slows; pullbacks before continuation become more likely.
The D1 OB at 1.15218-1.15426 remains unmitigated below current structure - deep pullback magnet. The H4 demand zone at 1.16567-1.16661 (Apr 9 consolidation base, retested twice) is the active near-term support. No material supply zone exists between current price (1.17246) and the equal highs at 1.17391 - the sweep of those highs is the most natural near-term move. Above 1.17391, buy-stop sweep opens 1.18000.
Sentiment Overview
Overall: Bullish | Confidence: Medium | Expires: 2026-04-14 03:15 UTC
EURUSD gained 200+ pips last week, breaking above the 6-week range and closing at 1.17246 on dominant USD-weakness: the Iran ceasefire collapsed the safe-haven bid, and March CPI core (2.6%, below forecast) removed any Fed hiking pretext. DXY fell to a 4-year low intraweek before recovering to 99.02. University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment collapsed to 47.6 from 53.3 - extreme reading, medium-term USD bearish.
Actionable signals:
- COT squeeze partially used - further gains require fresh longs; pace of appreciation moderates.
- 1.17391 equal highs - stop-hunt zone from breakout shorts; sweep before sustained break is typical.
- US PPI (14:30 local) - core above 0.3% MoM: EURUSD pullback to 1.16617-1.16267. Inline/soft: path to 1.18 opens.
Key risks: Hot core PPI, DXY reclaims 100.00, Iran ceasefire breakdown (USD safe-haven returns, EURUSD drops to 1.16-1.1550), 1.17391 equal-high stop hunt leading to a reversal rather than continuation.
Instrument Characteristics
Profile generated: 2026-03-27 - predates the breakout above 1.1600. Levels below 1.1600 in the profile are historical context only; use for behavioral and correlation reference.
EURUSD ADR10 ~100 pips (vs 64-pip 100-day average) - elevated wartime/macro regime. Typical spread: 1.3 pips. The pair is both mean-reverting within sessions and momentum-driven in trend phases. Session volatility: Asian 30-50 pips (set liquidity targets, not entries), London 40-70 pips (primary direction), Overlap 40-80 pips on data days (PPI today), NY solo 20-35 pips (management only).
Key correlations: DXY inverse (-0.95) - EUR is 57.6% of DXY; every DXY tick is a EURUSD signal. Watch DXY vs 99.00-99.50 on the Monday open. XAUUSD positive (+0.70) - if gold holds and recovers, it confirms USD weakness for EURUSD. Characteristic EURUSD behavior: round numbers (1.1700, 1.1800) see aggressive stop hunts before any sustained move through them. Expert consensus: Goldman Sachs and Deutsche Bank target 1.25 by year-end 2026.
Active Trade Ideas
No active trade ideas in this session.
Session Configuration
- Trading window: 02:00 - 23:00 (local Sofia, UTC+3)
- Active days: Monday - Friday
- Mode: Live (Admiral Markets)
- Playbooks:
- AI Discretionary Day Trading - Universal (Priority 1)
- Directional Thesis - Open Management v1 (Priority 1)
- Special instructions: None set
What to Watch - Invalidation
- US PPI core > 0.3% MoM today at 14:30 local - USD strength triggered; EURUSD pulls back to 1.16617-1.16267 before the bull thesis can reassert. Reduce long exposure ahead of release window.
- H4 close below 1.16267 - breakout failure; price re-enters the prior 6-week range. Long bias fully invalidated.
- DXY daily close above 100.00 - signals ceasefire USD-weakness narrative is reversing; dominant EURUSD driver removed.
- Iran ceasefire breakdown headline - USD safe-haven bid returns immediately; EURUSD drops sharply toward 1.16-1.1550; monitor Islamabad negotiation news throughout session.