EURUSD is positioned for a test of 1.18000 this week; the path depends on whether PPI confirms the disinflationary trend or triggers a measured pullback to 1.17391 before continuation.
EURUSDPrepConstructive
EURUSD Session Preparation — April 14, 2026: PPI at the Gates of 1.18
EURUSD enters Tuesday holding above the swept 1.17391 equal highs (yesterday's high 1.17651) at ~1.17650–1.17680, with 1.18000 as the primary upside target. The directional bias is firmly bullish — the D1 breakout above 1.16267 is intact and the equal-highs liquidity has been consumed. US PPI at 14:30 local is the session's decisive catalyst: a soft core print extends the USD-weakness trend toward 1.18+, while a hot print (core >0.3% MoM) risks a pullback to 1.17391 before the next leg.
EURUSD
US PPI March 2026 at 14:30 local — primary session catalyst
Reasoning
Directional Bias
Long. The 1.17391 equal highs were swept yesterday (session high 1.17651), validating the H4 compression breakout thesis that the preparation package identified. Price is holding above the swept level at ~1.17650–1.17680, with no structural damage to the bullish sequence. The next significant overhead reference is 1.18000 psychological resistance. Bias remains long while price holds above 1.17391 on H4 closes. Invalidation: H4 close back below 1.17391 (equal-highs sweep as a false break — possible on a hot PPI print), with the deeper structural anchor at 1.16267 (D1 BOS) still intact.
Regime & Market Context
All three primary timeframes are aligned bullish. W1 broke decisively above the 6-week range ceiling at 1.16267 in the week of April 7–11, closing at 1.17246 — the highest weekly close since early February. D1 produced five consecutive bullish closes through last week and extended on Monday with a close at ~1.17586 — confirmed HH above the prior April 10 high at 1.17391. H4 compression in the 1.16820–1.17391 band resolved higher on Monday's NY session with a 31-pip breakout candle. The regime is a post-impulse continuation within the W1 structural bull trend. DXY recovered to ~99 on Sunday/Monday and has repeatedly failed to reclaim the 99.50 level, keeping the structural backdrop USD-bearish. Note: yesterday's session ran without London doing any directional work — the move came entirely from NY (18:00 UTC candle). PPI today is the catalyst that was withheld from Monday.
Key Levels
| Level | Type | Origin | Expected Reaction |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1.18000 | Resistance | Psychological round number; Feb 2026 swing zone | Potential stall/reversal; option gamma clustered; stop-hunt above before real move |
| 1.17651 | Minor resistance | Yesterday's session high | Intraday supply; clean break with conviction confirms extension |
| 1.17391 | Support (pivotal) | Swept equal highs from Apr 8/10 | First pullback target on PPI strength; H4 close below = false break risk |
| 1.17100–1.17050 | Support | H1 consolidation zone from Apr 13 London session | Secondary support on a deeper PPI-driven dip |
| 1.16820–1.16858 | Support | Prior H4 compression range floor | Strong demand zone — multiple higher lows formed here |
| 1.16267 | Major support | D1 BOS — the breakout level | D1 close below = full breakout failure (not expected this week) |
Market Structure
D1 swing sequence is confirmed bullish: HL at 1.14429 (Mar 29) → HH at 1.17651 (Apr 13). The BOS above 1.16267 remains unchallenged — no D1 close has threatened it since the April 7 breakout. Yesterday's equal-highs sweep produced a new HH, extending the impulsive structure. H4 is now above 1.17391 — the immediate question for today's session is whether it consolidates above the swept level or retraces to it as support.
The active D1 bullish order block at 1.15218–1.15426 (Apr 5 candle — the accumulation before the breakout) is well below current price. There are no unfilled FVGs above current price between 1.17651 and 1.18000 that would provide resistance — the technical path to 1.18 is structurally clean.
Session Map
Session: 02:00–23:00 local (UTC+3). PPI at 14:30 local (11:30 UTC) is today's defining event.
- Pre-PPI / Asian + London (02:00–14:15 local): Price likely consolidates in the 1.17391–1.17700 zone. Asian session should establish a tight range (~30–50 pips). London may attempt to sweep the Asian range before the PPI window — watch for a Judas swing above 1.17700 or below 1.17391 in the 09:00–11:00 local window.
- PPI event window (14:15–15:30 local): Avoid new entries 15 minutes either side of the release. The initial algorithmic spike in either direction is typically partially faded before the real direction establishes. The post-data direction that holds past 30 minutes (~15:00 local) is the signal.
- Post-PPI continuation (15:30–18:00 local): Primary entry window. Soft core PPI — buy the first pullback to 1.17391 targeting 1.18000. Hot core PPI — wait for 1.17391 to be tested; if it holds as support, it becomes the entry level.
- NY afternoon (18:00–23:00 local): Yesterday showed the NY session carries the directional move in this environment. Monitor for extension toward 1.18000.
Consumption & Order Flow
The H4 compression that preceded yesterday's breakout was an accumulation pattern — higher lows building within the range. The breakout consumed the sell-side liquidity at the 1.17391 equal highs (stops from breakout shorts). With those stops consumed, the next available buy-side liquidity pool sits above 1.18000. There is no significant unmitigated supply structure between 1.17651 and 1.18000 — the path is structurally clean. A reactive entry model (buy pullback to 1.17391 on PPI soft print) fits the consumption picture better than chasing above 1.17651. On a hot PPI outcome, watch whether 1.17391 is retested and held — that would be the absorption signal before the next leg.
Sentiment Overview
EURUSD Sentiment Report #50 — Generated: 2026-04-13 03:15 UTC | Expired (expiry: 2026-04-14 03:15 UTC)
⚠️ This report expired at 03:15 UTC today. The directional themes remain valid but PPI today supersedes the forward-looking economic calendar guidance.
- Overall: Bullish | Confidence: Medium
- USD structural weakness: Iran ceasefire removed safe-haven bid; core CPI 2.6% (below 2.7% forecast) removed Fed hawkish pretext; DXY broke structurally below 100
- COT: EUR short-covering largely complete — further upside requires fresh long accumulation (pace of gains expected to slow)
- Institutional consensus: Goldman Sachs 1.25, Deutsche Bank 1.25, UBS 1.20 year-end
- Elliott Wave (EWM Interactive): 1.17391 cleared, weakening the bear case; 1.18–1.19 trendline from 2018 highs is the next major ceiling on W1
Key risks today:
- US PPI core >0.3% MoM: USD strength; EURUSD pullback to 1.16617–1.16267 per the sentiment model (though with yesterday's sweep, the more likely pullback target is 1.17391)
- DXY recovery above 100: Would signal ceasefire USD weakness is fading
- 1.17391 equal highs became support: If broken on H4 close post-PPI, the NY sweep was a false break
Instrument Characteristics
(Profile: EURUSD Annual Profile — March 2026, generated 2026-03-27 — predates the April breakout structure, use as behavioral background only)
- ADR: Running at ~87–100 pips vs 64-pip 100-day average — elevated volatility context; use wider targets and stops
- London session (09:00–14:00 local): Primary directional session for EURUSD — but yesterday was an exception (London dead, NY delivered). Note: London may be restrained by the PPI event pending
- NY overlap (14:00–18:00 local): Highest volatility; PPI at 14:30 falls here; post-data direction holding past 15:30 tends to carry
- Avoid: 14:15–14:45 local (PPI spike window)
- Correlations: GOLD moving higher = USD-weakness confirmation, reinforces EURUSD bid. DXY is the primary inverse.
Active Trade Ideas
No active trade ideas linked to the session at the time of preparation.
Session Configuration
- Trading window: 02:00–23:00 local (UTC+3)
- Active days: Monday–Friday
- Mode: Live
- Playbooks:
- AI Discretionary Day Trading — Universal (priority 1)
- Directional Thesis — Open Management v1 (priority 2)
- Special instructions (from session): Price ~1.1761 at session creation (created April 13 evening), above the 1.17391 equal-highs sweep. PPI March 2026 is Tuesday April 14 at 14:30 local — the primary catalyst. Full context stack attached: instrument profile, sentiment report, preparation package outputs.
What to Watch — Invalidation
- US PPI core >0.3% MoM at 14:30 local: USD strength scenario. Watch if 1.17391 holds as the first pullback support. If H4 closes below 1.17391, the equal-highs sweep was a false break — shift to neutral and wait for retest of 1.17100.
- DXY reclaims 99.50: Would signal USD demand is returning ahead of PPI. EURUSD would face headwinds above 1.17600 and may retrace before extending.
- H4 close below 1.17391: The pivotal level post-sweep. Below here shifts near-term bias to cautious; next support is 1.17100 then 1.16820.
- D1 close below 1.16267: Full breakout failure — not expected today, but this is the structural invalidation that would end the April bull swing entirely.