Session prep · EURUSD · Jul 31, 2026
EURUSD closed Thursday at 1.15275 (+62 pips versus Wednesday's 1.14653), the first daily close above 1.1500 in the recent range, after the GDP/Core PCE pairing resolved cleanly in favor of the prep's leading dollar-unwind scenario. Friday carries no tier-1 catalyst — only the Employment Cost Index at 12:30 UTC and a final Michigan sentiment read — after two consecutive elevated-volatility sessions, so today's base case is digestion above the break rather than a fresh trend leg. With the scenario weights split three ways and the last 20 scored directional leans wrong every time, the prep stays Neutral/Wait and lets the range prove itself either way.
Sorted by price. Bars show published distance in daily ATR; origins and expected reactions stay alongside each level.
Anchor: Thursday's confirmed close, 1.15275 (MetaTrader 5 D1 bar: O 1.14548, H 1.15364, L 1.14340, C 1.15275). Friday's live intraday feed was not independently fetched this run — treat any price beyond this close as inferred, not tick-confirmed. Distances use the confirmed ATR(14, D1) of 0.00588. All levels sit inside or at the edge of the confirmed 20-day range (1.13529-1.15364) except 1.1600, which is flagged beyond-range.
Expected ReactionSweep target if the continuation branch fires cleanly; not yet in play
OriginPsychological round number above Thursday's session high
Expected ReactionA held break here confirms continuation is real, not a blowoff
OriginNear-term round number; first test for the continuation scenario
Expected ReactionFirst reaction point on any renewed push higher; a hold above turns this into new-range support
OriginThursday's confirmed session high and the 20-day range high
Expected Reaction–
OriginThursday's confirmed GDP/Core PCE-day close (MetaTrader 5)
Expected ReactionA hold here keeps the breakout thesis alive through the digestion day
OriginFormer resistance, now the first line of defense after the first-ever daily close above it
Expected ReactionLoss reopens a retest of the full former supply zone
OriginUpper edge of the former mid-July supply zone, broken Thursday
Expected ReactionSecond line; a held loss here would erase most of Thursday's confirmation
OriginLower edge of the former supply zone
Expected ReactionA break here would put the twice-defended 1.1424 shelf immediately in play
OriginThursday's pre-data compression-window low, tested and held during the 09:00-12:00 UTC window
Expected ReactionDeep pullback target; a break here would revive the pre-FOMC bearish structure entirely
OriginTwice-defended pre-FOMC shelf
Round numbers (1.1550, 1.1600) remain sweep targets rather than defended lines; 1.1600 sits beyond the confirmed range and is flagged as a stretch target for the continuation branch only.
Conditional paths, weighted before the session. Probabilities are expectations, not promised outcomes.
The decision point today is not a tier-1 release but whether Thursday's breakout holds through a session with thinner, pre-weekend liquidity and only tier-2 data on the calendar.
The range scenario leads because it matches the standard post-trend-day precondition and because today's only scheduled data is tier-2. The continuation and pullback branches are kept close to co-equal deliberately — Thursday's momentum is real and could extend, but two consecutive elevated-volatility sessions followed by a pre-weekend Friday is exactly the setup where mean-reversion risk is highest, so neither directional branch is allowed to dominate the map. Weighting stays close to the 43%-average lead scenario this instrument has carried over its last 20 scored sessions, which the calibration record shows is honestly sized rather than overconfident.
UTC, New York and Sofia times for this session.
| Session / event | UTC | New York | Sofia |
|---|---|---|---|
| Asian session Thin, digesting Thursday's NY-afternoon breakout. Per this pair's tendency, the Asian high/low here is a liquidity read, not a level. | 00:00–07:00 | 20:00 (-1 day)–03:00 | 03:00–10:00 |
| London open The primary ignition window and the best chance today to activate the continuation branch — a displaced break above 1.1550 here matters more than elsewhere in the session — but this pair's documented Judas-roundtrip tendency at the London open means a first break should be treated skeptically until a second break confirms. | 07:00–09:00 | 03:00–05:00 | 10:00–12:00 |
| Employment Cost Index () and pre-print window (12:00-12:30 UTC A tier-2 wage-cost print, not a scheduled trigger for a specific branch — standard pre-event discipline applies (no fresh directional lean in the 30 minutes before). A genuinely hot or cooling surprise could still nudge the rate-differential driver and feed either the continuation or pullback branch. | 12:30 | 08:30 | 15:30 |
| Michigan Consumer Sentiment, final A minor revision to the preliminary read; treat as a volatility window only, not a trigger. | 14:00 | 10:00 | 17:00 |
| NY overlap This pair's documented fade zone — pullback bottoms built here continue only 24-25% of the time — so a dip into this window reads as a fade risk within the range, not confirmation of the pullback branch. | 13:00–16:00 | 09:00–12:00 | 16:00–19:00 |
| Pre-weekend close Historically thinner liquidity and position-squaring ahead of the weekend gap; expect range compression into the close regardless of which scenario is leading, and treat any late break with extra skepticism given lower conviction flow. | 18:00–21:00 | 14:00–17:00 | 21:00–00:00 (+1 day) |
The argument and conditions behind the published call.
Yesterday's call: Neutral/Wait, led by a 40%-weighted PCE-led dollar-unwind scenario — partial hit. The lead scenario fired cleanly (held break above 1.1475/1.1482, close 1.15275, +62 pips versus Wednesday's 1.14653), the first close above 1.1500 in the recent range, but the Neutral/Wait lean sat out a move its own top scenario had already earned. Last 20 scored: 4 hit / 15 partial / 1 miss (20%/75%/5%); lead scenarios hit 50% of the time on a 43%-average stated weight (a well-calibrated -7 gap); directional lean accuracy 0%.
A methodology note: the internal Cortiq preparation-package feed (regime classification, key-level cache, sentiment report) was not reachable at generation time. The price anchor and level framework below come from the confirmed prior-session OHLC and ATR supplied for this run; Friday's live intraday feed was not independently fetched, so treat every level distance as anchored to Thursday's confirmed close rather than a fresh tick. Calendar context is drawn from verified public sources.
