Session prep · EURUSD · Aug 4, 2026
A Twice-Defended 1.1500 Pivot Meets a Tier-2 Data Cluster
EURUSD closed August 3 at 1.15078, down from the 1.15443 open, after an Asian-session spike to 1.15586 faded and price bled to tag the 1.1500 pivot (1.14999 low) before reclaiming it into the close -- the 1.1482-1.1560 band has now held cleanly for two straight sessions. Tuesday carries no tier-1 catalyst: a US tier-2 cluster (Trade Balance, JOLTS, Factory Orders, all 12:30-14:00 UTC) and two scheduled Fed speakers are the session's only real inputs, against a backdrop where both the Fed and ECB are pricing meaningful odds of a September hike -- a double-tightening dynamic that offsets rather than resolves last week's FOMC-dissent-versus-GDP-beat tension. The prep leads with continued range compression and stays Neutral/Wait ahead of Wednesday's ADP and Friday's payrolls.
Sorted by price. Bars show published distance in daily ATR; origins and expected reactions stay alongside each level.
Anchor: the confirmed MetaTrader 5 close for August 3 is 1.15078 (session open 1.15443, high 1.15586, low 1.14999). ATR(14, D1) is 0.00585. All levels sit inside the confirmed 20-day range (1.13529-1.15586) except 1.1600, which is flagged beyond-range.
Expected ReactionSweep target if the continuation branch fires cleanly; not yet in play
OriginPsychological round number above Monday's confirmed high
Expected ReactionFirst reaction point on any renewed push higher; a held break turns this into fresh continuation confirmation
OriginMonday's confirmed Asian-session swing high, faded within the hour without a held H1 close above it
Expected ReactionA held break here confirms continuation is real, not a repeat of Monday's faded spike
OriginNear-term round number; first test for the continuation scenario, twice touched intrabar Monday without a held close above it
Expected Reaction--
OriginReference price for today's session
Expected ReactionA third defense strengthens the pivot; a held loss here would be the session's most significant technical event
OriginFormer resistance, breached intraday in the prior week and reclaimed, tagged again Monday (1.14999 confirmed low) and reclaimed a second time
Expected ReactionLoss reopens a retest of the full former supply zone
OriginUpper edge of the former mid-July supply zone; not approached Monday
Expected ReactionA held loss here would erase most of last week's breakout confirmation
OriginLower edge of the former supply zone; not approached Monday
Expected ReactionOnly relevant on a failed retest of 1.1475; would mark a genuine trend failure, not a repeat of the recent reclaimed sweeps
OriginStructural level below the confirmed 1.14547 swing low, inside the confirmed 20-day range
Round numbers (1.1550, 1.1600) remain sweep targets rather than defended lines. 1.1500 has now been tagged and reclaimed twice without a held close below it -- a level touch is not, by itself, the pullback branch's trigger; a held close is.
Conditional paths, weighted before the session. Probabilities are expectations, not promised outcomes.
The decision point today is not a tier-1 release but whether the 1.1500 pivot -- now defended twice in three sessions -- holds through a second consecutive tier-2-only day, with the 12:30-14:00 UTC US data cluster (Trade Balance, JOLTS, Factory Orders) the session's one real volatility window and Fed Vice Chair Bowman's early-afternoon discussion a secondary risk.
The consolidation scenario leads because Tuesday matches the standard range-day precondition -- no tier-1 catalyst, and a prior session that proved the band can absorb a genuine intrabar stress test on both edges. The continuation and pullback branches stay co-equal rather than skewed toward either side: the rate-differential story that used to argue cleanly for euro strength is now complicated by the market pricing meaningful September-hike odds for the ECB alongside the Fed, which is a wash for the pair rather than a resolution, and nothing on today's calendar is strong enough to force a break either way.
UTC, New York and Sofia times for this session.
| Session / event | UTC | New York | Sofia |
|---|---|---|---|
| Asian session Per this pair's tendency, the Asian high/low here is a liquidity read, not a level; Monday's own Asian-session spike to 1.15586 that faded within the hour is the live proof-point for treating this window skeptically. | 00:00–07:00 | 20:00 (-1 day)–03:00 | 03:00–10:00 |
| London open The primary ignition window and the best chance today to activate the continuation branch -- a displaced break above 1.1550 here matters more than elsewhere in the session -- but this pair's documented Judas-roundtrip tendency (44% at the London open) means a first break should be treated skeptically until a second break confirms. | 07:00–09:00 | 03:00–05:00 | 10:00–12:00 |
| US data cluster Trade Balance at 12:30 UTC, then JOLTS Job Openings and Factory Orders together at 14:00 UTC -- the session's one real scheduled volatility window, even though every release is tier-2. A soft read across the cluster feeds the continuation branch by reviving the dollar-unwind narrative; a firm read (stronger JOLTS, narrower trade deficit) feeds the pullback branch by reinforcing the hawkish side of the new double-tightening dynamic. Standard pre-event discipline applies in the 30 minutes before 12:30 and 14:00 UTC. | 12:30–14:00 | 08:30–10:00 | 15:30–17:00 |
| NY overlap This pair's documented fade zone -- pullback bottoms built here continue only 24-25% of the time -- so a dip into this window during or after the data cluster reads as a fade risk within the range, not automatic confirmation of the pullback branch. | 13:00–16:00 | 09:00–12:00 | 16:00–19:00 |
| Fed Vice Chair Bowman discussion (~ A scheduled, not a surprise, event; treat any USD reaction as a secondary confirmation signal for whichever branch the midday data cluster already leaned toward, not a fresh catalyst in its own right. | 16:45 | 12:45 | 19:45 |
| NY afternoon / close No pre-weekend or pre-holiday factor today; a genuine late move carries normal weight. Governor Cook's economic-outlook address (~20:05 UTC) falls as the US cash session is winding down and is not expected to be a session-shaping catalyst. | 18:00–21:00 | 14:00–17:00 | 21:00–00:00 (+1 day) |
The argument and conditions behind the published call.
Yesterday's call: Neutral/Wait, led by a 40%-weighted consolidation-above-the-pivot scenario -- hit. EURUSD closed August 3 at 1.15078, after an early Asian-session spike to a marginal new high of 1.15586 faded immediately and price ground steadily lower to tag the 1.1500 pivot almost exactly (1.14999 low) before reclaiming it into the close -- the session never printed a held H1 close outside the called 1.1482-1.1560 band. Last 20 scored: 5 hit / 14 partial / 1 miss; lead scenarios averaged a 43% stated weight and hit 50% of the time (a -7 point gap -- well calibrated, no further haircut applied to today's weights); directional lean accuracy 50%.