Session prep · EURUSD · Sep 15, 2026
EURUSD enters Tuesday at 1.15369 below the broken 1.15576 floor after Monday's 1.65x ATR expansion. Post-break containment leads at 44%, while the main risk is London converting a held break below 1.15227 into beyond-range continuation before Wednesday's US retail sales and Fed decision.
Sorted by price. Bars show published distance in daily ATR; origins and expected reactions stay alongside each level.
Anchor: confirmed live price 1.15369. Distances use the confirmed D1 ATR(14) of 0.00457 and live H4 ATR of approximately 0.00228. The confirmed 20-day range is 1.15227-1.17111; lower continuation levels are flagged beyond-range.
Expected ReactionUpper repair target; acceptance above it would interrupt the current lower-high sequence
OriginMonday's high and the top of the latest impulsive D1 decline
Expected ReactionA reclaim would improve the recovery, while rejection keeps the old range floor overhead
OriginSeptember 4 H4 swing low, broken during Monday's impulsive decline
Expected ReactionFirst meaningful repair test; a five-pip displaced H1 close above is needed before treating it as reclaimed
OriginSeptember 11 H4 swing low and last week's low, now broken inside the D1 downswing
Expected ReactionFirst supply zone on a bounce; repeated H1 rejection supports bearish containment
OriginAugust 17 D1 floor and former lower edge of the multi-week balance
Expected ReactionReclaim opens rotation toward 1.15576; failure below it keeps pressure on the new floor
OriginConfirmed Monday close after the late rebound from 1.15227
Expected ReactionA touch can bounce, but only a held close matters; displaced acceptance activates continuation
OriginMonday low and confirmed 20-day floor after the prior balance broke
Expected ReactionFirst structural waypoint if 1.15227 fails; do not treat a shallow sweep as reversal proof
OriginAugust 13 D1 swing low beneath the confirmed 20-day range
Expected ReactionDeeper continuation objective; reaching it would confirm that Monday's break became a broader daily correction
OriginEarly-August D1 and weekly breakout origin beneath the confirmed 20-day range
Conditional paths, weighted before the session. Probabilities are expectations, not promised outcomes.
The decision point is London's response to 1.15227 and the broken 1.15576 floor. The beyond-range five-pip downside threshold sits at 1.15177, about 0.42x D1 ATR below the current price. The upside threshold is 1.15738, about 0.81x above it.
Containment gets the lead because a large trend day is often followed by digestion, today's calendar lacks a tier-1 release, and live H4 volatility is compressed. Downside continuation still carries 40% because the H4 lower-high sequence remains intact, overnight H1 closes are migrating lower, and price has not reclaimed any broken edge. The rebound branch stays at 16% until the market supplies the reclaim evidence that Monday's trap call lacked.
UTC, New York and Sofia times for this session.
| Session / event | UTC | New York | Sofia |
|---|---|---|---|
| Asian / pre-London Price slipped to 1.15369 and printed an Asian low at 1.15368, effectively at the live anchor. That low is a liquidity target, not defended support. French CPI and HICP arrive at 06:45 UTC, followed by Spanish CPI and HICP at 07:00 UTC; their moderate-importance response can arm any branch but cannot replace H1 confirmation. | 21:00 (-1 day)–07:00 | 17:00 (-1 day)–03:00 | 00:00–10:00 |
| London ignition This is the primary decision window. Holding 1.15227 while closes remain below 1.15576 activates containment. A completed H1 close at or below the beyond-range threshold at 1.15177 activates renewed downside, while 1.15738 is the upside repair threshold. | 07:00–09:00 | 03:00–05:00 | 10:00–12:00 |
| London follow-through Eurozone trade data print at 09:00 UTC and German plus Eurozone ZEW surveys at 09:05 UTC. A rates-sensitive surprise can push price through an edge, but the branch changes only after a displaced H1 close or held retest. Continued overlap through 10:00 UTC strengthens containment. | 09:00–12:00 | 05:00–08:00 | 12:00–15:00 |
| New York data window Empire State manufacturing prints at 12:30 UTC with moderate importance. A dollar-positive response can activate the downside branch through the beyond-range threshold at 1.15177; a dollar-negative response matters only if EURUSD reclaims 1.15738. | 12:00–14:00 | 08:00–10:00 | 15:00–17:00 |
| New York overlap This is a reversal-prone window. If London extended lower, a rebound that closes back above 1.15227 invalidates the downside branch rather than offering a late short entry. | 14:00–16:00 | 10:00–12:00 | 17:00–19:00 |
| Late New York Schnabel speaks and the US 20-year bond auction occurs at 17:00 UTC, both moderate importance. Treat an uncatalysed late break as fragile unless an H1 close remains beyond 1.15227 or 1.15688. | 16:00–21:00 | 12:00–17:00 | 19:00–00:00 (+1 day) |
| Dead zone No fresh entries. Thin trade cannot validate a break through the mapped edges. | 22:00–23:00 | 18:00–19:00 | 01:00 (+1 day)–02:00 (+1 day) |
The argument and conditions behind the published call.
Yesterday's call: neutral with 39% trap and 38% downside co-leads, partial. The held short trigger fired and EURUSD closed at 1.15498 after a 75.5-pip range. Last 20 scored: 25% hit / 75% partial / 0% miss.