Session prep · EURUSD · Sep 17, 2026
EURUSD starts at 1.14600 after Wednesday's 95.9-pip fall broke the 20-day floor. Bearish continuation leads at 42%, but the neutral lean waits for acceptance below 1.14544 or a held repair above 1.14999 because EUR CPI and the US data window can reverse the first post-event move.
Sorted by price. Bars show published distance in daily ATR; origins and expected reactions stay alongside each level.
Anchor: confirmed live price 1.14600. Distances use the confirmed D1 ATR(14) of 0.00502 and the live H4 ATR of approximately 0.00215. The confirmed 20-day range is 1.14603-1.17111; levels below 1.14603 are marked beyond-range.
Expected ReactionMajor repair test; rejection would keep the lower-high sequence intact
OriginSeptember 14 H4 swing low, broken during Wednesday's impulsive D1 decline
Expected ReactionFirst supply zone after a 1.14999 reclaim; acceptance opens 1.15227
OriginAugust D1 swing low inside the prior multi-week balance, now broken
Expected ReactionA held H1 close plus retest activates repair; a touch alone is not enough
OriginEarly-August weekly breakout origin, broken by Wednesday's event-window selloff
Expected ReactionSweep target, not defended resistance; failure back below 1.14603 favors renewed pressure
OriginCurrent Asian high after the impulsive H4 decline
Expected ReactionFirst test of whether the breakdown can hold; repeated closes below keep sellers in control
OriginPrior-session low and confirmed 20-day floor, broken overnight
Expected ReactionSweep target; only a completed close and failed retest confirm continuation
OriginCurrent Asian low beneath the confirmed 20-day range
Expected ReactionFirst structural check below the live low; acceptance beneath it opens a larger air pocket
OriginLate-July weekly swing high beneath the confirmed 20-day range
Expected ReactionExtension target if 1.14491 fails; reaching it would complete a much deeper weekly correction
OriginJuly weekly swing low beneath the confirmed 20-day range
Conditional paths, weighted before the session. Probabilities are expectations, not promised outcomes.
The decision point is acceptance outside 1.14544 and 1.14999 after the 09:00 UTC Eurozone CPI release and the 12:30 UTC US data window.
The bearish branch leads because W1, D1, and H4 all point lower after a close near Wednesday's low. Its weight stops at 42% because the move already covered 1.91× ATR, today's calendar can reprice both sides of the rate differential, and the first post-event impulse has a documented tendency to fail. The 38% repair branch is close enough to matter, but the four-point margin keeps continuation as the operative lead.
UTC, New York and Sofia times for this session.
| Session / event | UTC | New York | Sofia |
|---|---|---|---|
| Asian and pre-London EURUSD has traded between 1.14544 and 1.14727 around a confirmed 1.14600 anchor. Both edges are liquidity, not defended support or resistance. The range can arm any branch, but it cannot confirm one before London liquidity arrives. | 21:00 (-1 day)–07:00 | 17:00 (-1 day)–03:00 | 00:00–10:00 |
| London ignition The usual primary ignition window can test 1.14544 or 1.14727. With Eurozone CPI due at 09:00 UTC, treat a pre-release break as positioning unless an H1 close survives the release. | 07:00–09:00 | 03:00–05:00 | 10:00–12:00 |
| Eurozone CPI window CPI is high impact, with 2.8% forecast against 2.8% previously. A downside break that closes below 1.14544 and fails its retest activates continuation. A euro-positive response must reclaim 1.14999 and hold the retest before repair becomes active. The first 15-30 minutes are a fade window, not proof of the durable move. | 09:00–10:00 | 05:00–06:00 | 12:00–13:00 |
| Post-CPI London trade This is the first delayed-resolution window. Acceptance beyond 1.14544 or 1.14999 can carry the active branch, while a return through both sides increases the whipsaw weight. | 10:00–12:00 | 06:00–08:00 | 13:00–15:00 |
| New York data window Initial jobless claims and the Philadelphia Fed index both print at 12:30 UTC with high impact. A dollar-positive response can confirm continuation below 1.14544. A dollar-negative response can activate repair only after 1.14999 is reclaimed and retested. | 12:00–14:00 | 08:00–10:00 | 15:00–17:00 |
| New York overlap This is a reversal-prone window. If either data impulse is already stretched, a return through 1.14603 or 1.14999 is an invalidation signal, not an invitation to chase. | 14:00–16:00 | 10:00–12:00 | 17:00–19:00 |
| Late New York Carry a directional branch only while H1 closes remain beyond its trigger. An uncatalysed late break back into 1.14544-1.14999 belongs to the digestion branch. | 16:00–21:00 | 12:00–17:00 | 19:00–00:00 (+1 day) |
| Dead zone No fresh entries. Thin trade cannot validate a break through the mapped edges. | 22:00–23:00 | 18:00–19:00 | 01:00 (+1 day)–02:00 (+1 day) |
The argument and conditions behind the published call.
Yesterday's call: no September 16 preparation is on record. The latest EURUSD call, September 15's 44% range lead, was a hit as price stayed inside its mapped band. Last 20 scored: 30% hit / 70% partial / 0% miss.