Friday plan: keep the growth book concentrated in proven AI earnings power
Friday plan: hold all four positions at current weights. NVDA, MSFT, and META retain the strongest evidence, while AMZN remains the smaller watch position until its relative trend improves. Friday's open must confirm that growth leadership can absorb the jobs report and renewed energy-driven inflation risk.
Accountability: Thursday's hold plan passed. The book gained 0.27% versus SPY at 0.18%, led by NVDA at 1.09%; AMZN lagged at negative 0.37%, so the warning on uneven leadership was justified.
Since Last Session
Thursday finished with a modest gain for the portfolio and a smaller gain for the benchmark. The prior book returned 0.27% versus SPY at 0.18%. NVDA rose 1.09% and META added 0.1%. MSFT slipped 0.02%, while AMZN fell 0.37%.
Regime Check
Regime: R2. Selective growth leadership remains intact, but participation outside large-cap technology is weak and macro sensitivity remains high.
Supporting: QQQ gained 0.31% Thursday and retains positive momentum of 2.18% over 20 days and 3.8% over 60 days. XLK gained 1.05%, with momentum of 3.8% over 20 days and 6.91% over 60 days. NVDA advanced 1.09%, while MSFT and META retain strong medium-term momentum. Software strength and Accenture's earnings beat support the view that enterprise technology spending still has earnings substance.
Contradicting: SPY's 20-day momentum is negative 0.13%. IWM, XLF, and TLT have negative momentum over both 20 and 60 days, which points to weak breadth and continued rate pressure. Brent oil's reported jump of more than 4% on Middle East tension raises a fresh inflation risk. The VIX at 16.39 is contained, but it doesn't remove the event risk surrounding Friday's jobs report.
Plan for Friday
Hold MSFT at 29%, AMZN at 15%, NVDA at 28%, and META at 28%. No trade is planned at the open. Thursday's evidence strengthened NVDA, left MSFT and META intact, and confirmed that AMZN should remain the smallest position rather than receive more capital.
The open must confirm that NVDA, MSFT, and META can retain relative leadership after the jobs report. AMZN must avoid extending its weakness. QQQ and XLK should continue to act better than the broad market, while any renewed rise in rates or energy-driven inflation pressure must remain contained enough for growth multiples to hold.
Positioning
| Holding | Weight | Thesis state | Action | Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MSFT | 29% | STRENGTHENED. | Hold. | Thursday was nearly flat, while 20-day momentum is 2.29% and 60-day momentum is 9.2%. Software earnings evidence remains supportive. |
| AMZN | 15% | WEAKENED. | Hold at the smaller weight and do not add. | Thursday fell 0.37%, with negative momentum over both 20 and 60 days. AWS and retail margin potential preserve the thesis, but the price evidence trails the other holdings. |
| NVDA | 28% | STRENGTHENED. | Hold. | Thursday gained 1.09%, with positive momentum over both 20 and 60 days. AI compute spending remains tied to current earnings power. |
| META | 28% | INTACT. | Hold. | Thursday gained 0.1%, while 20-day momentum is 5.2% and 60-day momentum is 15.66%, the strongest readings in the book. |
The portfolio remains fully invested and concentrated in high-quality growth. The drawdown is 0.74% from peak and the protocol remains normal, so there is no portfolio-level reason to dilute the strongest theses. Caution is expressed through AMZN's smaller weight and the refusal to add a weaker growth name before confirmation.
Institutional Signals
Pershing Square's reported portfolio gives slow-moving support to both AMZN and MSFT, listed at 17.4% and 15.3% of its filing portfolio. Bridgewater reported NVDA at 3.2% alongside broad index exposure. These filings support the durability of institutional interest, but they don't settle Friday's decision because they predate the current session and reveal positions with a lag.
Berkshire's filing reinforces the usefulness of concentration when business quality and conviction are high, although none of its listed top holdings is in this book. Scion's NVDA position is older still, so it carries little weight for timing.
What Could Break It
The regime would weaken if QQQ and XLK lose their positive medium-term leadership while SPY, small caps, and financials remain soft. A jobs report that drives another sustained rise in yields would pressure the valuation case. A continued oil shock could revive inflation expectations and tighten financial conditions.
At the company level, the book fails if hyperscalers cut AI capital spending, rising infrastructure costs stop producing durable cloud or advertising growth, or earnings guidance shows that monetization is falling behind investment. AMZN requires the closest attention because its 20-day and 60-day momentum are already negative. A deeper deterioration without better AWS or margin evidence would justify an exit rather than another passive hold.