Trading desk

How often are our session preps right?

Every session preparation makes falsifiable calls — a day type, a directional lean, and a weighted conditional scenario. Published assessments form this page's running score, misses included.

Calibration population

Phase reviews · Rates use assessed outcomes; inactive and unknown paths are excluded.

EURUSD

Last 20 scored sessions

Inactive: 8 · Unknown: 0 · Unverified: 0 · Not assessed: 0

Prep graded hit: 35% (n=17, CI 17–59%)
Partial: 47% (n=17, CI 26–69%)
Lead scenario hit: 42% (n=12, CI 19–68%)
Day-type call: 15% (n=13, CI 4–42%)
Directional leans: 85% (n=13, CI 58–96%) correct
Avg weight on fired branch: 42%

S&P 500

Last 20 scored sessions

Inactive: 11 · Unknown: 1 · Unverified: 0 · Not assessed: 0

Prep graded hit: 53% (n=15, CI 30–75%)
Partial: 27% (n=15, CI 11–52%)
Lead scenario hit: 38% (n=8, CI 14–69%)
Day-type call: 29% (n=17, CI 13–53%)
Directional leans: 53% (n=17, CI 31–74%) correct
Avg weight on fired branch: 37%

Gold

Last 20 scored sessions

Inactive: 13 · Unknown: 1 · Unverified: 0 · Not assessed: 0

Prep graded hit: 25% (n=12, CI 9–53%)
Partial: 50% (n=12, CI 25–75%)
Lead scenario hit: 50% (n=6, CI 19–81%)
Day-type call: 20% (n=15, CI 7–45%)
Directional leans: 69% (n=13, CI 42–87%) correct
Neutral, but market resolved: 0% (n=2, CI 0–66%)
Avg weight on fired branch: 36%

Planning weight and conditional completion

Average planning weight beside assessed lead-path completion. These descriptive figures do not establish probability calibration, entry eligibility or trading returns.

Lead-scenario hit rate, rolling 10 sessions

Recent scored sessions

Date	Instrument	Prep outcome	Lead weight	Lead result	Lean
Nov 6, 2026	Gold · Asia	partial	40%	hit	correct
Nov 6, 2026	Gold · London	inactive	45%	inactive	incorrect
Nov 6, 2026	S&P 500 · Asia	inactive	45%	inactive	incorrect
Nov 6, 2026	S&P 500 · London	hit	40%	hit	correct
Nov 6, 2026	EURUSD · Asia	inactive	40%	inactive	correct
Nov 6, 2026	EURUSD · London	partial	45%	partial	correct
Nov 5, 2026	Gold · Asia	inactive	45%	inactive	correct
Nov 5, 2026	Gold · London	inactive	45%	inactive	correct
Nov 5, 2026	Gold · New York	partial	40%	missed	neutral-correct
Nov 5, 2026	S&P 500 · Asia	missed	40%	missed	incorrect
Nov 5, 2026	S&P 500 · London	partial	45%	inactive	incorrect
Nov 5, 2026	EURUSD · Asia	hit	40%	hit	correct
Nov 5, 2026	EURUSD · London	hit	50%	inactive	correct
Nov 4, 2026	Gold · Asia	missed	45%	inactive	incorrect
Nov 4, 2026	Gold · London	inactive	45%	inactive	correct
Nov 4, 2026	Gold · New York	hit	45%	hit	correct
Nov 4, 2026	S&P 500 · Asia	inactive	40%	inactive	correct
Nov 4, 2026	S&P 500 · London	inactive	45%	inactive	correct
Nov 4, 2026	S&P 500 · New York	hit	40%	inactive	correct
Nov 4, 2026	EURUSD · Asia	inactive	40%	inactive	correct
Nov 4, 2026	EURUSD · London	partial	40%	inactive	incorrect
Nov 3, 2026	Gold · Asia	inactive	40%	inactive	correct
Nov 3, 2026	Gold · London	inactive	45%	inactive	incorrect
Nov 3, 2026	Gold · New York	missed	40%	inactive	neutral-correct
Nov 3, 2026	S&P 500 · Asia	partial	45%	partial	correct
Nov 3, 2026	S&P 500 · London	missed	45%	missed	incorrect
Nov 3, 2026	S&P 500 · New York	hit	45%	inactive	incorrect
Nov 3, 2026	EURUSD · Asia	missed	40%	missed	correct
Nov 3, 2026	EURUSD · London	hit	55%	hit	correct
Nov 2, 2026	Gold · London	inactive	40%	inactive	correct

How this is scored

Conditional path results follow the frozen preparation; direction and day-type calls are separate judgments. A path hit does not establish an eligible entry. Inactive and unknown paths are shown separately and excluded from assessed denominators. Stats cover each instrument's last 20 records within the selected population. Dated corrections link to their source while retaining the original review.

Planning weights express the original judgment and are never edited afterward. Descriptive outcomes do not automatically change future weights. Small assessed samples are shown with 95% confidence intervals; publication proof establishes availability, not independent semantic truth.