EUR/USD: analysis and research
Start with the latest published preparation, then see how the session was reviewed. Dates below identify the session covered; these are not live prices or trading signals.
Latest published sessions
EURUSD sits just above 1.13113 after a failed upside break and lower close, but sub-35-pip H4 activity and a dense 12:30 to 14:00 UTC calendar favor event-suspended trade first. The lean is Neutral / Wait, with a conditional short below 1.13113 and conditional long only after 1.13587 is reclaimed. The main risk is a first data-driven break reversing before tomorrow's US payrolls.
Sep 30, 2026 · PreparationEURUSD Session Analysis, September 30, 2026: Downside Structure Meets the US Data ClusterEURUSD remains below the broken 1.13528 to 1.13587 support area after a confirmed downside trend session. The call is Trend and short-leaning, with continuation needing a held loss of 1.13113. The main risk is a sharp reversal around the 12:15 to 13:45 UTC US data sequence.
Sep 30, 2026 · ReviewEURUSD Session Review, September 30, 2026: The Upside Break Failed Into a Lower CloseEURUSD closed 19.3 pips below its open, so the short lean was right, but the 55% downside-continuation lead never confirmed below 1.13113. The session instead followed the 27% failed-break branch, rallying through 1.13587 to 1.13800 before reversing near the close. The next preparation should give post-trend trap risk more weight when major US data follows a large directional day.
Sep 29, 2026 · PreparationEURUSD Session Analysis, September 29, 2026: Event Risk at the 20-Day LowEURUSD is compressed near the 1.13528 20-day low after three weeks of decline. The call is Event-suspended and Neutral / Wait, with a conditional short only after confirmed acceptance below 1.13528 and a conditional long above 1.13909. The main risk is a false first move across the 09:00, 11:00, and 14:00 UTC high-impact windows.
Sep 29, 2026 · ReviewEURUSD Session Review, September 29, 2026: The Downside Break Took ControlEURUSD closed 29.7 pips below its open after the prepared 48% downside-acceptance branch completed its H1 close, failed retest, and follow-through sequence. The lead scenario and conditional short were right, but the Event-suspended day-type call and Neutral / Wait lean missed a 62.4-pip bearish trend session. The next preparation should switch from suspension to trend as soon as an outer-edge trigger confirms.
Sep 28, 2026 · PreparationEURUSD Session Analysis, September 28, 2026: Range First Below 1.14107EURUSD starts at 1.13891 inside the failed-break range from 1.13587 to 1.14107. The call is Range and Neutral / Wait, with a conditional long only after confirmed acceptance above 1.14107 and a conditional short below 1.13587. The main risk is a false break or sharp reversal around ECB President Lagarde's 13:30 UTC speech.
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Research behind the analysis
About 63% of qualifying EURUSD breakouts extend and 37% fake out — but that headline hides everything. The size of the breakout candle is the real discriminator: weak breaks fail six times in ten, decisive ones succeed nine in ten.
EURUSD · 344 breakout events · 16 years of H1 dataSupport and Resistance Clusters: Wall or Launch Pad? 195 EUR/USD BreaksWe hand-inspected all 195 A-grade EUR/USD level breaks over five months. Direction relative to the live multi-day thrust decided almost everything: breaks taken with the thrust worked about 85% of the time, breaks taken against it about 13%. A rich cluster inside a live trend behaved as a launch pad, not a wall.
EUR/USD · 195 hand-inspected A-grade level breaks · 2 Jan to 29 May 2026Do EUR/USD Level Clusters Actually Predict Follow-Through? 1,462 Breaks Say Yes — ModestlyAcross 1,462 graded EUR/USD level breaks over five months, breaks from a genuine multi-signal cluster followed through ~62-66% of the time — roughly double the rate of breaks from a single isolated line. Popular 'confirmations' like session timing and volume barely moved the needle; the confluence itself did the work.
EUR/USD · 1,462 graded level breaks · ~103 sessions, Jan-May 2026When EURUSD Sweeps a High, Does It Reverse? Usually Not.The stop-hunt narrative says a wick beyond a swing high is a reversal signal. Across 4,986 EURUSD sweeps, only ~30% reversed — nearly 68% continued in the sweep direction. Most 'stop hunts' are just the level genuinely breaking.
EURUSD · 4,986 sweep events · 16 years of H1 dataDo EURUSD Pullbacks Continue or Reverse? 3,341 Events Say It's a Coin Flip — Until You Look CloserBuying the dip in a EURUSD trend is a near coin flip: of pullbacks that resolve within a day, 48.7% continue and 51.3% reverse. But three measurable traits — how deep, how fast, and what time — split the winners from the losers cleanly, and the most-taught rule (wait for the EMA20) is worse than a coin flip.
EURUSD · 3,341 pullback events · 16 years (2010–2026) of H4-trend / H1-pullback dataEURUSD Ranges Don't Revert — They Break Out 6-to-1The instinct at a range boundary is to fade it back toward the middle. Across 3,111 EURUSD range-boundary touches over 16 years, only 14.6% of resolved touches reverted to the opposite side — 85.4% broke out instead.
EURUSD · 3,111 range-boundary touches · 16 years of H1 dataGuides for preparation and review
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