Monday plan: hold the AI leaders and demand broader confirmation
Keep the four-position book unchanged for Monday. Friday strengthened the MSFT and AMZN cases, while positive medium-term momentum keeps NVDA and META investable despite their weaker session. The open must show that participation is broadening beyond software and cloud.
Accountability grade: B+. Friday validated the decision to stay invested, with the prior book gaining 0.95% against SPY's 0.6%, although NVDA and META didn't confirm the stabilization sought.
Since Last Session
The prior book gained 0.95% on Friday, ahead of SPY's 0.6% advance. MSFT rose 2.38% and AMZN gained 3.29%. NVDA declined 0.52%, while META fell 0.31%.
Regime Check
Regime: R2. Selective growth leadership remains intact, but participation is uneven and rates still constrain how aggressively the book should add exposure.
Supporting: SPY has 1.38% 20-day momentum and 2.02% 60-day momentum. QQQ has 1.86% 20-day momentum and 4.56% 60-day momentum. VIX is 14.84. MSFT and AMZN delivered strong Friday advances, and each current holding retains positive 60-day momentum.
Contradicting: IWM has negative 1.11% 20-day momentum and negative 4.34% 60-day momentum, showing weak participation outside large-cap leadership. TLT has negative 1.63% 20-day momentum and negative 4.31% 60-day momentum, which keeps valuation pressure on long-duration growth. NVDA and META lagged SPY on Friday.
Plan for Monday
Hold MSFT at 29%, AMZN at 15%, NVDA at 28%, and META at 28%. Friday strengthened the cloud and software side of the book, but one session doesn't justify another resize. The opening trade should confirm that MSFT and AMZN can retain leadership while NVDA and META stabilize and participate. If strength remains confined to two holdings, the book will stay fully invested but won't add concentration.
Positioning
| Holding | Weight | Thesis state | Action | Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MSFT | 29% | STRENGTHENED | Hold | Friday's 2.38% gain was supported by positive 20-day and 60-day momentum. |
| AMZN | 15% | STRENGTHENED | Hold | Friday's 3.29% gain and positive momentum improved the setup, but the smaller weight still reflects execution risk around AI spending. |
| NVDA | 28% | INTACT | Hold | Friday's 0.52% decline showed weaker participation, while 20-day and 60-day momentum remained positive. |
| META | 28% | INTACT | Hold | Friday's 0.31% decline softened the immediate tape, but 13.29% 60-day momentum preserves the leadership thesis. |
Institutional Signals
Pershing Square reported AMZN at 17.4% and MSFT at 15.3% in its May filing, supporting the case for concentrated exposure to durable cloud and platform franchises. Bridgewater's August filing included NVDA at 3.2% alongside broad-market exposure, which supports AI participation without implying the same concentration used here. Scion's older filing included NVDA at 13.5%, but its age limits its value for Monday's decision. These filings are slow-moving conviction context, not trading signals.
What Could Break It
The portfolio thesis weakens if hyperscalers cut or defer capital spending, Azure or AWS growth decelerates while investment keeps rising, or NVDA's margins deteriorate because custom silicon captures more demand. META requires consumer AI investment to support advertising or subscription revenue. At the market level, sustained deterioration in QQQ leadership alongside deeper weakness in long-duration bonds would signal that the current growth regime is failing.