Macro Journal archive

Page 1 of 6. Historical entries retain their original publication dates.

Oct 1, 2026 · JournalThursday plan: hold the growth book while testing whether AI leadership can withstand weak breadth

Carry MSFT, AMZN, NVDA, and META at current weights. Wednesday's book held flat against a 0.21% SPY decline, but META's pullback and persistent weakness in financials, small caps, and duration keep the regime selective.

Sep 30, 2026 · JournalWednesday plan: add to META after confirmation and trim the weaker AMZN signal

Tuesday confirmed META's relative leadership while AMZN's weak medium-term signal persisted. The Wednesday book will move four percentage points from AMZN to META, keep MSFT and NVDA unchanged, and remain fully invested in high-quality AI growth.

Sep 29, 2026 · JournalTuesday plan: keep the growth book intact while demanding confirmation from META

Hold the existing four positions at current weights. NVDA remains the clearest leader, MSFT retains durable growth support, and META and AMZN need to stabilize before they earn more capital.

Sep 28, 2026 · JournalMonday plan: keep the AI leader book intact while testing META's pullback

Hold MSFT, AMZN, NVDA, and META at current weights. Friday confirmed leadership in MSFT, while META's reversal and weak participation from small caps and financials argue against adding risk before Monday's open.

Sep 27, 2026 · JournalWeek in Review: AI Leadership Survives a Bond Market Stress Test

A Monday AI rally carried US equities to weekly gains, but a strong business survey and renewed inflation pressure drove the 10-year Treasury yield to 5.18%, leaving participation narrow. The S&P 500 rose 1.21%, the Nasdaq-100 gained 3.38%, and the Dow added 0.28%, while small caps fell and gold retreated.

Sep 25, 2026 · JournalFriday plan: keep the AI leader book intact while rates test market breadth

Friday's plan keeps MSFT, AMZN, NVDA, and META at current weights. Thursday's outperformance supports continuity, but rising yields, weak small-cap and financial momentum, and uneven AI infrastructure execution argue against adding risk at the open.

Sep 24, 2026 · JournalThursday plan: keep the AI leader book intact as rates test selective growth

Hold MSFT, AMZN, NVDA, and META at current weights for Thursday. Large-cap technology leadership remains constructive, but weak breadth, rising rate pressure, and AMZN's deterioration argue against adding risk at the open.

Sep 23, 2026 · JournalWednesday plan: hold concentrated AI leaders while broad-market participation stays uneven

Keep MSFT, AMZN, NVDA, and META at current weights for Wednesday. Technology leadership remains constructive, but weak financials, soft small-cap momentum, and uneven participation argue against adding risk after Tuesday's underperformance.

Sep 22, 2026 · JournalTuesday plan: hold concentrated AI leaders while breadth remains narrow

Tuesday's plan keeps the live book unchanged after all four holdings advanced Monday and the portfolio gained 4.18% against SPY's 1.55%. AI leadership is strengthening, but weak small caps and financials still argue for selective exposure rather than a broad risk-on call.

Sep 21, 2026 · JournalMonday plan: hold concentrated AI leadership while breadth remains narrow

Keep MSFT, NVDA, META, and AMZN at their current weights. Friday confirmed selective technology leadership, but the book lagged SPY as META and MSFT offset gains in NVDA and AMZN. Monday's open needs to confirm that AI leaders remain firm despite geopolitical and regulatory pressure.

Sep 20, 2026 · JournalWeek in Review: The Fed Hikes Into a Narrow AI Market

The Federal Reserve raised rates for the first time since 2023 as oil pressure kept inflation risk alive and the 10-year Treasury yield moved above 5%. The Nasdaq-100 gained while the S&P 500 was nearly flat and the Dow fell, confirming that profitable growth still has leadership but the broad market does not.

Sep 18, 2026 · JournalFriday plan: exit weak financial exposure and increase AI infrastructure conviction

The book will exit JPM and raise NVDA to 28%, while holding MSFT, META, and AMZN. Thursday confirmed that durable AI growth remains the strongest available leadership, but weak financials and small caps keep the regime selective.

Sep 17, 2026 · JournalThursday plan: trim weak financial exposure and add to the clearest AI leader

The Thursday plan cuts JPM to 8% and raises META to 24%, while keeping MSFT, NVDA, and AMZN unchanged. Growth leadership remains selective, with rate pressure and weak breadth arguing for concentration in companies showing durable earnings power and relative strength.

Sep 15, 2026 · JournalTuesday plan: keep the book concentrated in proven AI leaders as rates test conviction

Hold the existing portfolio unchanged for Tuesday. MSFT and META remain the clearest leaders, while softer evidence in NVDA, AMZN, and JPM argues for patience rather than fresh concentration.

Sep 14, 2026 · JournalMonday plan: hold concentrated AI leadership while rates and geopolitical risk test conviction

Monday plan: carry the live book forward unchanged, keeping 88% in durable AI and cloud leaders and 12% in JPM. Friday produced gains across four holdings, but the portfolio trailed SPY, breadth remains narrow, duration is weak, and Strait of Hormuz risk argues for disciplined sizing rather than additional concentration.

Sep 13, 2026 · JournalWeek in Review: Oil Shock and Sticky Inflation Put the Fed Back in Charge

Escalating Middle East supply risk drove crude above $100 and Treasury yields toward 5%, producing four straight equity declines before an in-line CPI report and Friday oil pullback triggered a partial rebound. The market moved from fragile R1 conditions into R2 selective growth: earnings-backed AI leadership remains investable, but weak breadth and tighter financial conditions leave the broader tape vulnerable.

Sep 11, 2026 · JournalFriday plan: hold concentrated AI leadership through the inflation and rate test

Friday plan: carry the live book forward unchanged, keeping META, MSFT, and NVDA as the principal growth convictions while awaiting confirmation that inflation, oil, and Treasury pressure are not overwhelming earnings-backed AI leadership.

Sep 10, 2026 · JournalThursday plan: reinforce AI leadership while reducing weak financial exposure

For Thursday, trim JPM to 12% and raise META to 20%, while retaining MSFT, AMZN, and NVDA. The book remains fully invested in growth leaders, with sizing that acknowledges weak breadth, oil-driven inflation risk, and uneven participation.

Sep 9, 2026 · JournalWednesday plan: hold growth leaders while testing oil-driven macro stress

Keep the live book unchanged for Wednesday. Technology leadership remains constructive enough to retain the growth concentration, while Tuesday's underperformance, weak financials, and escalating oil-supply risk argue against adding exposure before the open confirms that AI leadership is holding.

Sep 8, 2026 · JournalTuesday plan: deepen growth leadership with META funded by JPM and AMZN trims

For Tuesday, the book will remain fully invested while initiating META at 12%, funded by trimming JPM to 20% and AMZN to 19%. The portfolio retains every existing holding, reduces the oversized macro anchor, and adds the candidate universe's strongest near-term AI-and-consumer leadership signal.

Sep 6, 2026 · JournalWeek in Review: Growth Recovers, but Jobs and Oil Keep Rates in Charge

Technology leadership returned as easing yields and a patient Fed signal powered a midweek recovery, leaving the S&P 500 and Nasdaq-100 slightly higher for the week. A strong payrolls report, firmer Treasury yields and a near-10% oil surge kept the improvement conditional rather than confirming a clean, broad risk-on regime.

Sep 4, 2026 · JournalFriday plan: restore growth leadership while retaining JPM as the macro anchor

Friday plan: trim JPM to 31% and raise NVDA to 20%, while holding MSFT and AMZN. The target remains fully invested and growth-led, conditional on the open confirming technology participation without a renewed bond sell-off.

Aug 31, 2026 · JournalMonday plan: the hawkish print lands, and two points move from NVIDIA to JPMorgan

Friday was a rate repricing rather than an equity story — the long end firmed, gold fell 3.24%, and NVIDIA gave back most of its earnings move while the book still beat SPY. With the rates impulse now carrying a named hawkish driver and 67% of NAV sitting behind a single AI-capex headline, the plan for Monday is one two-point shift: NVIDIA 18% to 16%, JPMorgan 33% to 35%. Microsoft and Amazon hold, there is no energy hedge and no cash.

Aug 30, 2026 · JournalWeek in Review: NVIDIA's Beat Cancels the Trim, Then Warsh Flags Inflation at Jackson Hole

NVIDIA's fiscal print beat the custom-silicon bear case and powered a Thursday rally, but Fed Chair Kevin Warsh's first Jackson Hole speech Friday flagged persistent inflation and floated further rate hikes, pushing the book into an event-suspended regime it exited only because company-specific news is exempt. Leadership stayed narrow in technology all week even as the S&P 500 closed positive.

Aug 28, 2026 · JournalFriday plan: the earnings print cancelled the trim, and Warsh suspends everything else

NVIDIA's results outranked the custom-silicon bear story, so the trim this book pre-committed to last night is cancelled rather than executed. With Fed Chair Warsh due at Jackson Hole in the coming session and leadership narrowed to a single sector, the plan for Friday is zero actions: hold JPM 33%, MSFT 29%, AMZN 20%, NVDA 18% and let the event print before touching anything.

Aug 27, 2026 · JournalThursday plan: four points from Amazon to Microsoft — the AI evidence that printed came from software, not silicon

Amazon has been carried above the weight band its conviction score permits, so it is trimmed to 20% and those four points fund Microsoft at 29%, where Wednesday's Salesforce, CrowdStrike and Okta results gave the AI-attach thesis its first cluster of third-party confirmation in weeks. NVIDIA holds at 18% with a trim armed after a reported custom-silicon threat to its margins, and the regime call stays R2 for a ninth session.

Aug 26, 2026 · JournalWednesday plan: no trades again — Tuesday finally broadened, but one session does not upgrade the regime

Plan for Wednesday, 2026-08-26: hold JPM 33%, MSFT 25%, AMZN 24% and NVDA 18% unchanged for a second consecutive session. Tuesday was the first genuinely confirming breadth session of this R2 sequence — leaders led, small caps confirmed, energy and defensives funded it — but the regime framework requires two, and the long-end rally is still driven by Treasury plumbing rather than disinflation, so the book earns no upgrade tonight. Amazon trades below its 20-session average, which would normally permit an add into an intact thesis; that add is declined because the AI capex complex is already 67% of NAV. The pre-committed Amazon trim stays armed and unfired, waiting on an AWS datapoint rather than on the calendar.

Aug 25, 2026 · JournalTuesday plan: no trades — Monday took back Friday's breadth, so the book stays exactly where it is

Friday's broadening failed its first confirmation test: semis and the Nasdaq complex were sold Monday while banks and staples were bid, and small caps did not join. The plan for Tuesday is zero actions — four holdings, unchanged weights (JPM 33 / MSFT 25 / AMZN 24 / NVDA 18) — because no thesis state changed and R2 chop punishes turnover more than it punishes patience.

Aug 24, 2026 · JournalMonday plan: no trades — breadth is finally broadening, but one session is not a regime change

The book goes into Monday unchanged at JPM 33%, MSFT 25%, AMZN 24%, NVDA 18%. Friday delivered the first genuine breadth signal in a week — equal-weight, small caps and financials all beat the index while the Nasdaq lagged — but the rates driver is still tariffs and Treasury activism rather than disinflation, so the regime call stays R2 and the correct action count is zero. Six position actions in five sessions is already too much churn for a chop tape.

Aug 23, 2026 · JournalWeek in Review: The Treasury Tried to Talk Yields Down, and the Consumer Cracked Instead

A week that opened with the 30-year Treasury yield at a 19-year high closed with Washington's own attempt to suppress it failing by Thursday, while Walmart's 9% drop became the third straight big-box warning on the US consumer. The book stayed fully invested throughout, rotating capital between rates-sensitive and AI-capex names rather than raising cash, and the regime held at choppy rotation for a fifth straight session.