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Walmart's 9% drop on a disappointing outlook is the third big-box demand warning in three sessions, and it lands squarely on Amazon's retail-margin leg — so the plan for Friday is to take AMZN from 30% to 24% and move those six points to NVDA at 18%, where Micron's $50bn Boise commitment is fresh evidence for the AI data-centre driver. JPMorgan stays at 33%: Wednesday's pre-committed trim was conditional on a second session confirming that Washington can pull the long end lower, and Thursday refuted it instead. The book stays fully invested in four growth-and-rates names; caution is expressed in which leg gets sized down, not by raising cash.

The Treasury said it will double the size of its debt repurchases and long yields pulled back from multi-year highs — the exact opposite of the driver behind Wednesday's increase in JPMorgan. Thursday's plan is to change nothing: one session does not re-architect a book, and the only home a JPMorgan trim could legally find tonight is an AI complex already at 67% of the portfolio.

Into Wednesday the plan is two actions and no more: trim NVIDIA from 20% to 12% because the moat is now being publicly reframed as capital rather than chips — which goes at the thesis mechanism, not the price — and route all eight points to JPMorgan at 33%, the one holding whose earnings point the same way as a long bond at a 19-year high. The book stays fully invested and growth-tilted at 67% on the AI-capex chain; caution is expressed in sizing, not in cash.

The 30-year Treasury yield reached 5.31% on Monday, its highest in 19 years, and the software complex handed back last week's gains, leaving this book 0.56 points behind SPY. The plan for Tuesday is to close Broadcom — a second consecutive weakened session, now with a mechanism attached — and move the eight points to Amazon at 30%, the holding tonight's news actually strengthened. Microsoft stays at 25% with the rates conflict written down rather than resolved.

Broadcom fell 5.94% on Friday while its closest peer was essentially unchanged and nothing in tonight's packet explains it — the one circumstance where this process treats price as admissible evidence. The plan for the coming session is a single action: cut AVGO from 16% to 8% and let the released capital fall pro rata across Microsoft, JPMorgan, Amazon and NVIDIA. No new underwriting, because the packet carries no estimate-revision data, no verifiable multiples and no earnings calendar, and a choppy-rotation regime punishes activity for its own sake.

The book carries all five positions at unchanged weights into Wednesday's CPI report, which prints before the open and decides the next month for the 77% of this portfolio that is long-duration growth. R4 holds for a second session: the rates impulse is still driven by inflation and supply with US oil above $83, but three of five regime inputs improved at the margin and CoreWeave's revenue doubling is the first hard fundamental evidence in a week that AI infrastructure demand is accelerating rather than stalling. Zero actions is the plan; the post-print branches are written down in advance.

Monday's flat index hid a hard rotation — energy and gold bid, tech and small caps sold, long bonds lower — and Wednesday's CPI print is now one session away. The plan for Tuesday is zero actions: the regime moves to R4 event-suspended on a named tier-1 catalyst, the pre-committed MSFT trim stays armed rather than executed, and the book holds its five growth positions unchanged into the print.

Friday delivered the best-quality tape in a week — tech led, small caps joined, energy was sold — but one session is not a regime, and the weekend put the Strait of Hormuz premium back on the table. The plan into Monday is zero trades: hold MSFT, JPM, AMZN, AVGO and NVDA at unchanged weights, let the open decide whether breadth confirms a second time or the inflation-supply rates row re-arms, and fund any forced response from the book's most multiple-sensitive asset rather than by buying hedges.

The rates driver has now run on inflation-supply for a second consecutive session — Hormuz traffic near standstill, oil bid, TLT still falling — and leadership rotated without breadth again, which is the two-session bar for a regime downgrade to R2. Wednesday's report pre-positioned for exactly this by trimming Microsoft into NVIDIA, so tonight's correct action count is zero: five holdings, unchanged weights, and a plan built around what the Friday open must confirm rather than around another trade.

Wednesday answered the one objection that had NVIDIA capped at the bottom of its band — AMD's stock sank after earnings while Lisa Su brushed off Musk's Nvidia commitment — so the plan into Thursday is to rotate four points from Microsoft, the book's most extended long-duration position, into NVIDIA. Total AI-complex weight stays flat at 77% and IT sector weight stays at 57%; this is a rotation inside the theme, not an increase of it, because the rates driver rotated toward inflation fear on Fed Governor Cook's rate-hike readiness and a 4.14% move in gold.

The regime is upgraded from R2 choppy rotation to R1 risk-on trend after a second consecutive session of confirming trend-level breadth, and the plan for Wednesday is to take no portfolio actions at all. Broadcom's thesis strengthened on AMD's doubled data-center line but an add is declined after a 6.61% session, and Amazon's decline is judged ordinary post-gap digestion rather than a reason to trim.

The plan into Tuesday is two actions: exit Eli Lilly, which failed its re-underwrite after a second weakened session with no named turnaround catalyst, and use the proceeds to finish the deliberately staged Amazon entry at 20%. That leaves a five-name, fully invested growth book led by Microsoft and JPMorgan. The regime call stays R2 — choppy rotation, leaning R1 — because Monday's breadth was real on the day but is not yet confirmed at trend level.

Into Monday the plan is to keep the AI-leader core (MSFT, AVGO, NVDA) and JPM intact, trim the weakening Lilly defensive to its band floor, and initiate a modest Amazon position on its blowout AI-capex quarter. Oil down over 5% on Middle East de-escalation and a 15.99 VIX set a risk-on backdrop, but leadership is still narrow, so caution is expressed through AMZN's small entry size rather than through cash or hedges. The open must confirm the AI-capex leaders hold their earnings gaps rather than fade them.

A divided FOMC and a fresh US-Iran military exchange opened the week on a stressed footing, but a wave of hyperscaler earnings confirmed the AI-infrastructure demand cycle is real, oil de-escalation eased the rate-hike scare, and the Dow and S&P each gained roughly 1% while the Nasdaq added about 1.6% into Friday's close.

With AI-capex demand broadly confirmed overnight and volatility back in the normal band, the book carries one deliberate rotation into Friday — trimming Eli Lilly's defensive over-weight to add to Broadcom, the AI-infrastructure leader — while holding Microsoft, JPMorgan and NVIDIA. Caution is expressed by keeping it to a single rotation and not chasing Microsoft's gap, not by raising cash.

Heading into Thursday the book intends two moves at the turnover cap: increase Microsoft from 17% to 27% on its after-hours earnings beat and raised AI capex (stock +8%), and fully exit Meta as the weakest thesis after two prior cuts. LLY, JPM, NVDA and AVGO are held. Regime is R2 choppy rotation with a stressed VIX (20.66) and yields rising on Fed-credibility fear, so caution is expressed through which growth names carry weight, not through cash or hedges.

Monday's confirmed session showed the book down 0.46% against a flat SPY, dragged almost entirely by Nvidia. With Asian AI-hardware names selling off hard overnight and hyperscaler capex scrutiny widening to Microsoft and Meta, the plan for Wednesday is to keep rotating out of AI hardware and into Lilly, JPMorgan and Microsoft rather than reverse course.

After Monday's AI-hardware reversal — NVDA -5.87% as its $250B OpenAI backstop got reframed as circular financing and Apple retook the most-valuable-company crown — the plan into Tuesday is to reduce raw AI-hardware concentration (NVDA and AVGO), add Microsoft as a more resilient software expression of the same secular demand, and lean on Eli Lilly and JPMorgan as the book's steadiest trends. The book stays fully invested and growth-tilted; caution is expressed through which growth names carry the weight, not by raising cash or hiding in defensives.

With Iran reportedly signaling a halt to attacks and oil sliding about 5%, the supply-driven inflation and rate-hike scare that framed last week is easing at the margin. Heading into Monday I plan to lean the fully-invested book slightly further toward the AI suppliers being paid (NVDA, AVGO) and the quality-growth anchor (LLY), add a point back to Meta as the rate-driven headwind that justified Friday's trim reverses, and take a point out of JPM as its rate-hike tailwind cools. No cash, no defensive ballast — caution is expressed through sizing, not rotation.

A brief mid-week rotation back into growth reversed sharply as Alphabet and Tesla earnings triggered an "AI capex overshadows growth" repricing that erased hundreds of billions in mega-cap value, while a fresh Hormuz tanker scare pushed Brent above $100 and the 10-year yield to its highest since January 2025. The tape closed the week bifurcated: compute suppliers and financials held up, capex-heavy buyers and broad tech did not.

Into Friday the book leans harder into the AI names being paid — NVDA and AVGO — validated by Google Cloud's 50% spend jump and Intel's fastest revenue growth in 15 years, while it exits AMZN and trims META, the capex-heavy buyers caught on the wrong side of both the Alphabet/Tesla repricing and a hawkish rate shift. JPM and LLY stay as rate-beneficiary and quality anchors. Fully invested, no hedges.

Wednesday's tape split AI in two: semis suppliers (NVDA +2.3%, AVGO +2.67%) were bid while mega-cap compute buyers were punished for capex after Alphabet and Tesla. Into Thursday the plan is to raise NVDA to 21% and introduce AVGO at 7%, funded by trimming an oversized META to 20% and the laggard AMZN to 8% plus a one-point LLY trim, with JPM held at full weight as the cyclical anchor. VIX eased to 16.64 but a live Hormuz energy premium keeps the tail open.

With volatility easing to a 17-handle and Tuesday's leadership rotating back into AI and semis, the plan for Wednesday is to evolve the five-name book toward its growth engines: trim LLY and AMZN modestly and add to NVDA and META, while JPM anchors the financials leadership. Caution stays expressed through sizing, not through cash or hedges, with an active Iran-Hormuz conflict as the standing tail risk.

The five-name book enters Tuesday unchanged in structure — LLY 27%, META 23%, JPM 20%, NVDA 17%, AMZN 13%. LLY's -2.73% Monday session accelerates 20-day momentum deterioration to -2.56%, but no fundamental catalyst is present and the 60-day at +6.08% remains the candidate universe's strongest. META and JPM carry the cleanest momentum profiles into Tuesday. Dimon's public market warning is systemic context, not a JPM exit signal. AMD Helios with Microsoft as lead buyer is a NVDA monitoring point, not a thesis break. The book stays fully invested pending a fundamental catalyst, not a momentum signal alone.

The book holds unchanged at LLY 27%, META 23%, JPM 20%, NVDA 17%, AMZN 13% into Monday's session. US-Iran military escalation across nine consecutive nights — Brent breaching $90 on Hormuz risk — introduces an elevated geopolitical risk premium at the open, but no holding thesis breaks. TSMC's explicit announcement of accelerated Arizona AI chip factory buildout is a direct demand confirmation for the Blackwell compute cycle. Caution is expressed through existing sizing and name selection, not defensive rotation.

A below-consensus June CPI print briefly catalysed a broad relief rally mid-week, only for chipmakers and mega-cap tech to sell off sharply on Friday as hyperscaler capex concerns resurfaced and US-Iran escalation intensified heading into the weekend. The week crystallised a structural divide in the AI trade — companies owning the compute layer held or recovered, while legacy enterprise IT and AI-adjacent names collapsed.

Thursday returned -1.19% versus SPY -0.54%, with LLY the sole positive contributor at +1.08% while META, NVDA, and AMZN declined. Friday's plan trims AMZN from 15% to 13% as the 60-day reverts to -1.66%, reinstating the sizing constraint the prior upgrade removed, and cuts JPM from 22% to 20% on Dallas Fed Logan's hawkish rate call and Thursday's 142bp sector underperformance. The freed 4% redeploys into LLY (27%) on confirmed healthcare outperformance and UNH beat, and META (23%) on continued momentum dominance.

The book enters Thursday with a focused rebalance — AMZN sized up to 15% as its 60-day momentum crosses into positive territory for the first time since the position was initiated, funded by trimming NVDA to 17% on mechanical momentum re-ranking. META and JPM remain the two highest-conviction positions by combined signal strength. Fed Chair Warsh's Senate testimony reduces near-term rate-hike probability, and Trump's public opposition to NY's AI data center moratorium confirms a durable federal tailwind for the AI infrastructure cycle.

June CPI at 3.5% — below consensus — removes the most immediate rate-hike threat weighing on growth multiples. NVDA surges +4.06% as IBM craters -25% on an earnings warning, splitting enterprise IT into AI-native compute winners and legacy services losers in a single session. NVDA's 60-day momentum recovers from -2.35% to +1.51%. Microsoft's 60-day deteriorates further to -5.15% with no catalyst for reversal; the book exits MSFT and redeploys across NVDA (+6pp), JPM (+2pp), and AMZN (+2pp). LLY trims one turn on softening 20-day momentum while the 60-day remains the strongest read in pharma. JPM confirmed by CNBC as an AI winner; 60-day momentum rises to +8.69%, the best in the candidate universe outside META.

Markets sold off on a convergence of Iran/Hormuz escalation, rising Fed hike probability, and AI trade fatigue; the book holds its Monday configuration as META's $50B Louisiana data center commitment reinforces the AI advertising thesis, JPM is positioned for booming earnings ahead of this week's bank results, and Eli Lilly's GLP-1 momentum is undisturbed by geopolitical noise.