Session prep · SP500 · Oct 14, 2026
SP500 enters CPI day compressed between 7,787.75 and 7,817.00 near the top of its 20-day range. The lean is Neutral / Wait until the 12:30 UTC release and 14:30 UTC cash open produce a held H1 break; the main risk is trading the first post-CPI impulse before New York confirms or reverses it.
Sorted by price. Bars show published distance in daily ATR; origins and expected reactions stay alongside each level.
Reference: the completed H1 candle closed at 7,804.68 at 03:00 UTC. Distances use the confirmed 67.68-point D1 ATR. Every level is inside the confirmed 7,507.02 to 7,845.02 20-day range.
Expected ReactionFinal mapped upside target; any extension beyond it is beyond-range and unmapped
OriginOctober 6 H4 swing high and 20-day range high above the corrective daily leg
Expected ReactionFirst upside target after acceptance above 7,817.00
OriginOctober 12 H4 swing high beneath the range extreme
Expected ReactionA close, held retest and fresh high activate the upside branches
OriginPrior-session high and latest confirmed H4 swing high
Expected ReactionFirst failure line after either event break; repeated crossings favor rotation
OriginPrior-session close near the middle of the compressed H4 band
Expected ReactionA close, failed reclaim and fresh low activate the downside branches
OriginPrior-session low inside the broader H4 correction
Expected ReactionFirst downside target; quick recovery warns against pressing the short
OriginOctober 9 H4 swing low within the repaired daily leg
Expected ReactionSecond downside target and the nearby line protecting the broader advance
OriginOctober 7 H4 swing low below the recent balance
Conditional paths, weighted before the session. Probabilities are expectations, not promised outcomes.
The decision point is the 12:30 UTC CPI release, with the first completed H1 response and the 14:30 UTC cash open deciding whether either edge holds.
UTC, New York and Sofia times for this session.
| Session / event | UTC | New York | Sofia |
|---|---|---|---|
| EU cash open A test of 7,817.00 or 7,787.75 can arm an event branch but cannot confirm it before CPI. New York can fully reverse a clean European move, so don't carry an EU direction into the cash open without a new trigger. | 07:00–09:00 | 03:00–05:00 | 10:00–12:00 |
| CPI blackout No new entries. The 12:30 UTC CPI cluster can activate either immediate acceptance branch, but the first completed H1 response must survive its retest. | 12:00–13:00 | 08:00–09:00 | 15:00–16:00 |
| first-move test A return inside 7,787.75 to 7,817.00 arms the failure branches. An extreme surprise can continue, but a moderate reaction still needs cash-open confirmation. | 13:00–14:30 | 09:00–10:30 | 16:00–17:30 |
| US cash-open decision This is the dominant engine. A held event break can complete immediate acceptance; a reset inside the band followed by a new cash-session break can begin delayed resolution. | 14:30–15:30 | 10:30–11:30 | 17:30–18:30 |
| second decision window A close, retest and fresh extreme can activate delayed cash-open resolution after the first CPI move failed. If price remains inside the band, rotation keeps control. | 15:30–16:30 | 11:30–12:30 | 18:30–19:30 |
| power hour Manage a confirmed branch. Don't treat the first late break as a fresh entry, and ignore maintenance-gap spikes as directional evidence. | 19:00–21:00 | 15:00–17:00 | 22:00–00:00 (+1 day) |
Sector-composition note: The map is exposed to mega-cap technology versus cyclicals. If one side carries the post-CPI move while the other refuses, treat index acceptance as narrow and reduce conviction.
The argument and conditions behind the published call.
Yesterday's call: long with a Trend call, partial. The 29% failed-repair path reached the 7,807.41 area, but the long lean missed the 7,809.17 close.
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