EURUSD daily regime, 2026-10-26

Regime: Higher-timeframe bearish structure, with D1 and H4 consolidating near the lows. The short-term condition is balanced after an early dip was reclaimed.

Reference: 1.12120 from the M5 candle closed at 2026-10-25 23:50 UTC.

Structure

Observation: W1 remains in a sequence of lower highs and lower lows from the August high at 1.17111. Last week traded entirely inside the prior week's 1.11125 to 1.12691 range, then closed at 1.12019 after failing at 1.12604.

D1 recovered from 1.11125 but couldn't clear 1.12691. The latest daily sequence rolled from 1.12367 to 1.12322, 1.12160 and 1.12019, which keeps pressure tilted lower. The broader daily balance sits between 1.11125 and 1.12691.

Inference: The primary regime is bearish, but price is compressing rather than trending cleanly. Sellers retain the structural advantage below 1.12691, while continuation needs a confirmed break beneath the recent 1.11756 to 1.11842 support area.

H4 and H1 condition

H4 has been rotating inside 1.11842 to 1.12557. Friday's recovery attempts stalled below 1.12261, leaving the H4 condition mildly bearish within that range.

The latest completed H1 candle closed at 1.12084 at 23:00 UTC. Since that close, M5 price fell through 1.12061 and reached 1.12019. That downside move has already occurred. Price then rebounded to 1.12127 and closed at 1.12120, reclaiming both 1.12061 and the latest H1 close.

The 1.12019 test also returned price to Friday's close after the higher weekly open. The rebound reduces immediate downside momentum, but it hasn't repaired the rejection structure above 1.12147.

Levels

Role	Levels
Immediate support	1.12099, 1.12084, 1.12019
Lower support	1.11910, 1.11842, 1.11756
Immediate resistance	1.12127, 1.12147, 1.12229 to 1.12261
Higher resistance	1.12557, 1.12604, 1.12691
Major downside reference	1.11125

Scenario map

• Bearish continuation, 45%: A fresh M5 breakdown and H1 acceptance below 1.12019 would reopen 1.11910, followed by 1.11842 and 1.11756. A break of 1.11756 would strengthen the broader bearish trend case toward 1.11125.

• Range rotation, 35%: Holding 1.12019 while remaining capped below 1.12261 would keep price rotating inside the opening balance. This is the current short-term condition.

• Bullish repair, 20%: H1 acceptance above 1.12261 would weaken the immediate bearish case and expose 1.12557, 1.12604 and 1.12691. The W1 bearish structure would remain intact unless 1.12691 is cleared and held.

Event risk

The supplied calendar contains no events dated 2026-10-26 through the end of its window at 2026-10-27 00:00 UTC. No scheduled event risk can be identified from this packet, so the regime is level-driven.