Session prep · EURUSD · Sep 14, 2026
Asia Sweeps the Lower Edge Before Lagarde
EURUSD is neutral at 1.15868 after Asia swept the 1.15844 lower edge without yet confirming continuation. A failed-break trap and a London downside break are near-equal branches, while the main session risk is that Lagarde's 15:15 and 15:35 UTC appearances reverse an earlier move during the New York overlap.
Sorted by price. Bars show published distance in daily ATR; origins and expected reactions stay alongside each level.
Anchor: confirmed live price 1.15868. Distances use the confirmed D1 ATR(14) of 0.00424 and the live H4 ATR of approximately 0.00219. Every level is inside the confirmed 20-day range of 1.15576-1.17111.
Expected ReactionBeyond the normal compressed-session path; only acceptance above 1.16197 brings it into play
OriginSeptember 10 H4 swing high inside the corrective downswing from 1.16537
Expected ReactionUpper rotation target; a held break would repair the latest lower-high sequence
OriginFriday's high plus the September 9 H4 swing low, now overhead within the corrective D1 leg
Expected ReactionFirst meaningful trap-path target; rejection keeps the recovery corrective
OriginSeptember 8 H4 swing low and former support inside the current H4 decline
Expected ReactionReclaim supports the trap branch; repeated closes below preserve downside pressure
OriginConfirmed Friday close after the 1.15688 CPI sweep rejected
Expected ReactionA held reclaim activates the trap path; a rejection from beneath keeps 1.15844 exposed
OriginSeptember 10 H4 swing low, broken during Asia after Friday recovered above it
Expected ReactionA sweep is not reversal proof; five-pip H1 displacement below activates continuation
OriginSeptember 4 H4 swing low and a repeated D1-range floor, swept during early Monday trade
Expected ReactionFirst downside target; another intrahour breach without a close remains trap-prone
OriginConfirmed Friday low and latest H4 swing low, created by the failed post-CPI downside impulse
Expected ReactionA held loss deepens the daily correction; rejection preserves the multi-week balance
OriginAugust 17 D1 low and confirmed floor of the 20-day range within the broader W1 advance
Conditional paths, weighted before the session. Probabilities are expectations, not promised outcomes.
The decision point is London's reaction to the Asian sweep of 1.15844, followed by Lagarde's 15:15 and 15:35 UTC appearances; a wick or proximity alone does not activate a branch.
The map gives the trap path a narrow first place because Friday's large CPI surprise could not sustain downside and today's first break occurred in thin Asian trade. The downside branch remains nearly co-equal because H1 ranges break more often than they mean-revert, sweeps frequently continue, and the short-term structure has made lower highs from 1.16537. The 39% lead is consistent with the last 20-session calibration, but the 1-point margin correctly prevents a nominal edge from becoming an operative call.
UTC, New York and Sofia times for this session.
| Session / event | UTC | New York | Sofia |
|---|---|---|---|
| Asian / pre-London EURUSD fell from 1.15982, closed an overnight H4 candle at 1.15872 and swept 1.15844 to 1.15831. Asian extremes are liquidity targets, not defended support or resistance. This move arms both the downside-acceptance and failed-break branches but confirms neither before London. | 21:00 (-1 day)–07:00 | 17:00 (-1 day)–03:00 | 00:00–10:00 |
| London ignition The strongest EURUSD window decides the first branch. An H1 close at or below 1.15794 activates downside continuation; a held H1 close at or above 1.15966 activates the failed-break trap. A first break followed by reversal requires the second break or held retest before entry. | 07:00–09:00 | 03:00–05:00 | 10:00–12:00 |
| London follow-through / Schnabel Schnabel speaks at 09:15 UTC with moderate importance. Her remarks can reinforce or reverse London's rates move, but only price acceptance beyond 1.15844 or 1.15916 changes the map. Continued H1 overlap through 12:00 UTC activates the containment branch. | 09:00–12:00 | 05:00–08:00 | 12:00–15:00 |
| New York build-up No US hard-data release is scheduled. A clean London break may extend, but an uncatalysed move that cannot hold its decision edge should be downgraded before the ECB speaker window. | 12:00–14:45 | 08:00–10:45 | 15:00–17:45 |
| Lagarde blackout / NY overlap No new entries around Lagarde's high-importance appearances at 15:15 and 15:35 UTC. This reversal-prone window can turn a London downside break into the trap branch or sweep the upper rotation edge and return to containment; wait for a completed H1 close after the second appearance. | 14:45–16:05 | 10:45–12:05 | 17:45–19:05 |
| Late New York Follow a confirmed branch only while price remains beyond 1.15844 or 1.15916. An uncatalysed late extension is vulnerable to retracement, especially if Lagarde's impulse returns through 1.15977. | 16:05–21:00 | 12:05–17:00 | 19:05–00:00 (+1 day) |
| Dead zone No fresh entries. Thin liquidity cannot validate acceptance beyond 1.15844 or 1.16171. | 22:00–23:00 | 18:00–19:00 | 01:00 (+1 day)–02:00 (+1 day) |
The argument and conditions behind the published call.
Yesterday's call: neutral around CPI with a 40% downside lead — partial. Friday closed at 1.15977 after a break to 1.15688 failed to hold; the 35% failed-break branch described the tape. Last 20 scored: 25% hit / 75% partial / 0% miss.
