EURUSD Daily Regime, 2 November 2026

Regime: bearish higher-timeframe structure, with price consolidating near support after Friday's selloff. The reference price is 1.11561 from the M5 close at 00:00 UTC.

W1 and D1 structure

Weekly structure remains bearish. EURUSD has fallen from the August high at 1.17111 through a sequence of lower highs, and last week closed at 1.11567 after trading down to 1.11040. That candle broke the prior week's 1.11756 low and closed below it. The October recovery attempts have repeatedly stalled between 1.12604 and 1.12691, leaving that area as the main higher-timeframe resistance.

Daily price action is still contained within the broader 1.11040 to 1.12691 October range, but the internal condition has weakened. Friday reached 1.12144 before reversing to 1.11361 and closing at 1.11567. This was an observed rejection from the upper half of the range, not a confirmed break below its floor. The inference is that sellers retain control while price remains below 1.12144, with stronger bearish confirmation requiring acceptance below 1.11040.

H4 and H1 condition

H4 shows a failed recovery. Price rebounded from 1.11040 on 29 October, reached 1.12144 early on 30 October, then sold off sharply. The decline broke through 1.11758 and reached 1.11361 before a limited rebound. Resistance is layered at 1.11634 to 1.11724, followed by 1.11852 and 1.12055 to 1.12144.

The first two completed H1 candles of the new week traded between 1.11453 and 1.11634. The latest H1 candle closed at 1.11561 at 00:00 UTC, below its 1.11634 high and above the opening low. This is stabilization after the prior selloff, but it hasn't repaired the bearish H4 condition.

Latest M5 developments

The opening move lifted from 1.11453 to 1.11618, then settled around 1.11526. During the next hour, M5 price pushed to 1.11634 before fading steadily to the 1.11561 reference close. The rejection has already occurred, so 1.11634 now acts as the immediate recovery barrier. No completed M5 candle is supplied after the latest H1 close at 00:00 UTC.

Levels and remaining scenarios

• Immediate support: 1.11525, then 1.11453 and Friday's 1.11361 low.
• Major support: 1.11211, 1.11125 to 1.11126, then the October floor at 1.11040.
• Immediate resistance: 1.11634, followed by 1.11712 to 1.11724 and 1.11852.
• Higher resistance: 1.12055 to 1.12144, then 1.12262 and 1.12604 to 1.12691.

A sustained move below 1.11361 would resume pressure toward 1.11211 and the 1.11125 to 1.11040 support cluster. Acceptance below 1.11040 would confirm that the October range has resolved lower.

A recovery above 1.11634 would first challenge 1.11712 to 1.11852. Clearing that area could extend the rebound toward 1.12055 to 1.12144, but the broader bearish structure remains intact unless buyers reclaim the 1.12262 to 1.12691 region.

Event risk

High-impact USD risk is scheduled for 2 November at 15:00 UTC, with ISM Manufacturing PMI and ISM Manufacturing Prices Paid released together. JOLTS Job Openings follows on 3 November at 15:00 UTC. Both windows can produce abrupt movement through nearby technical levels.