S&P 500 Daily Regime: Bearish correction, early rebound under broken support

W1 and D1 structure

Observation: Weekly structure has turned decisively lower from the 7,845.02 peak. The last three completed weeks closed at 7,657.87, 7,632.83 and 7,580.52. The latest week traded through the prior 7,610.13 swing low, reached 7,525.82 and closed below it. That confirms the support break has already happened.

Daily structure is also bearish. Friday fell from 7,674.58 to 7,580.52, with a 7,525.82 low, extending the lower-high sequence that followed the 7,785.07 rejection on 28 October. The close below 7,631.42 and 7,610.13 leaves former support overhead.

Inference: The dominant regime is a correction with downside control. The overnight rebound is repairing Friday's extension, but it hasn't yet changed the daily structure.

H4 and H1 condition

Observation: H4 produced a sustained decline from 7,785.07, followed by an acceleration through 7,676.63, 7,631.42 and 7,610.13. Friday's final H4 candle recovered from 7,525.82 to 7,580.52, showing demand at the low without reversing the broader sequence.

The latest completed H1 candle opened at 7,603.88, dipped to 7,595.70, reached 7,615.13 and closed at 7,612.76 at 00:00 UTC. This reclaimed Friday's 7,580.52 close and the 7,600 area, but finished beneath the broken 7,617.32 to 7,635.32 zone.

Inference: H1 is rebounding inside a bearish H4 condition. Holding above 7,595.70 would preserve the immediate recovery attempt. Acceptance above 7,635.32 would improve it and expose 7,655.52 to 7,680.27. Until then, rallies remain vulnerable to renewed selling.

Latest M5 development

Observation: During the latest H1 candle, M5 initially fell from 7,603.88 to 7,595.70, then formed higher lows and advanced to 7,615.13. It closed at 7,612.76, near the upper end of the hourly range. No completed M5 candle exists after the latest H1 close, so there is no lower-timeframe confirmation beyond that rebound.

Levels and remaining paths

• Immediate resistance: 7,615.13, then 7,617.32 to 7,635.32.
• Higher resistance: 7,655.52 to 7,680.27, followed by 7,725.44 and 7,785.07.
• Immediate support: 7,595.70, then 7,580.52.
• Lower support: 7,525.82 and 7,507.02.

The bearish path remains favored while price stays below 7,635.32. Rejection from 7,615.13 to 7,635.32 would put 7,595.70 and 7,580.52 back under pressure, with 7,525.82 the next major test. A sustained recovery above 7,635.32 would shift the near-term condition toward consolidation and allow a move into 7,655.52 to 7,680.27. Daily structure would still need recovery above 7,725.44, and then 7,785.07, before the correction could be considered materially repaired.

Event risk

• 2 November, 15:00 UTC: ISM Manufacturing PMI and ISM Manufacturing Prices Paid, both high-importance USD events.
• 3 November, 15:00 UTC: JOLTS Job Openings, high-importance USD event.