Session prep · EURUSD · Sep 22, 2026
EURUSD remains inside the 1.14544 to 1.14974 decision band with live H4 ATR compressed to about 16.0 pips. Range is the 42% lead, but Monday's close near support keeps downside continuation competitive at 36%. ECB President Lagarde's 11:00 UTC speech is the main session risk because it can force a false first break from the lower edge.
Sorted by price. Bars show published distance in daily ATR; origins and expected reactions stay alongside each level.
Anchor: the latest live candle close is 1.14710. Distances use the confirmed D1 ATR(14) of 0.00464 and live H4 ATR of approximately 0.00160. The confirmed 20-day range is 1.14544 to 1.16792; lower levels are marked beyond-range.
Expected ReactionDeep repair target; rejection keeps the H4 lower-high sequence intact
OriginSeptember 16 H4 swing high inside the impulsive daily decline
Expected ReactionFirst repair target after upside acceptance; failure returns focus to 1.14974
OriginSeptember 16 H4 swing low before the final downside impulse
Expected ReactionA completed H1 close and held retest activate repair; a touch is only a liquidity test
OriginSeptember 17 H4 swing high and upper edge of the mature balance
Expected ReactionFirst test inside the band; rejection supports range rotation back toward the prior close
OriginMonday's confirmed high and latest H4 swing high
Expected ReactionPressure marker and near-term magnet; holding above it keeps the lower edge from becoming accepted support failure
OriginMonday's confirmed close near the session low
Expected ReactionA touch is insufficient; an H1 close and failed retest activate downside continuation
OriginSeptember 17 H4 swing low and confirmed 20-day floor, retested at 1.14546 on Friday
Expected ReactionFirst check after downside acceptance; failure leaves little nearby support
OriginJuly weekly swing high below the confirmed 20-day range
Expected ReactionExtension target only after 1.14491 fails and selling remains accepted
OriginJuly weekly swing low below the confirmed 20-day range
Conditional paths, weighted before the session. Probabilities are expectations, not promised outcomes.
The decision point is H1 acceptance outside 1.14544 to 1.14974, first around the London impulse and again through Lagarde's 11:00 UTC speech.
Range keeps the lead because repeated closes inside the band and 16.0-pip H4 ATR still describe compression. Downside gets more weight than upside because Monday closed 2.1 pips above its low and only 9.2 pips above 1.14544 support, but the completed-close and retest rule stops that pressure from becoming a premature short call.
UTC, New York and Sofia times for this session.
| Session / event | UTC | New York | Sofia |
|---|---|---|---|
| Asia and pre-London The latest live price is 1.14710, still inside the decision band. Continued overlap supports the contained-range branch; an overnight wick through 1.14544 or 1.14974 activates nothing without an H1 close and retest. | 21:00 (-1 day)–07:00 | 17:00 (-1 day)–03:00 | 00:00–10:00 |
| London ignition This is the first window that can activate downside continuation or upside repair. The 08:30 UTC Bundesbank speech is moderate-impact event risk, so the first break still needs a completed H1 close and retest. | 07:00–09:00 | 03:00–05:00 | 10:00–12:00 |
| Lagarde decision window ECB President Lagarde speaks at 11:00 UTC. Either directional branch can activate here, but no new entries belong inside the 30-minute blackout on each side of the event. | 10:30–11:30 | 06:30–07:30 | 13:30–14:30 |
| Post-speech European trade A move that holds beyond 1.14544 or 1.14974 through a retest can carry into New York. A return inside the band raises the failed-break side of the range scenario. | 11:30–13:00 | 07:30–09:00 | 14:30–16:00 |
| New York data window Low-impact European confidence and Richmond Fed data arrive at 14:00 UTC, followed by a moderate-impact Fed Governor Jefferson speech at 14:20 UTC. These can amplify an accepted break but do not replace its price trigger. | 13:00–15:00 | 09:00–11:00 | 16:00–18:00 |
| New York overlap Treat pullbacks as potential reversals, not automatic continuation entries. A morning break that loses 1.14914 on the upside or recovers 1.14660 after a downside move is failing early. | 15:00–16:00 | 11:00–12:00 | 18:00–19:00 |
| Late New York The US 2-year note auction is at 17:00 UTC. Carry a directional branch only while H1 closes remain beyond its trigger; an uncatalysed late move back inside the band belongs to the range branch. | 16:00–21:00 | 12:00–17:00 | 19:00–00:00 (+1 day) |
| Dead zone No fresh entries. Thin trade cannot validate a break. | 22:00–23:00 | 18:00–19:00 | 01:00 (+1 day)–02:00 (+1 day) |
The argument and conditions behind the published call.
Yesterday's call: neutral with a 45% contained-range lead, hit. EURUSD stayed inside 1.14544 to 1.14974 and closed at 1.14636. Last 20 scored: 30% hit, 70% partial, 0% miss.