Session Card

Day type: range | Lean: mildly bullish above 1.11482 | Lead scenario: support retest and recovery, 45% | Key invalidation: 1.11347 | Reference: 1.11570 on the M5 close at 2026-10-28 23:30 UTC

What changed

The latest completed H1 candle closed at 1.11506 at 23:00 UTC. Since that close, M5 advanced from 1.11504 to a 1.11572 high and closed at 1.11570. The move improved the immediate tone without retesting 1.11482 support or clearing the 1.11645-1.11690 rejection area.

The FOMC surge to 1.11690 and its rejection are completed context. Price now enters Asia above the post-spike consolidation, but the broader bearish structure remains intact below 1.11726. The preferred recovery therefore needs a controlled support test, not a chase from the opening price.

The selected 27 October case also carried a range label at a similar ATR percentage, and its confirmed downside path completed. The material difference is that this phase follows a sharp event-driven rebound from major support. That earlier outcome doesn't establish a downside base rate. Recent review feedback also warns that conditional paths can fail or remain incomplete by expiry, so each candidate below has a bounded retest and an in-window deadline.

Scenario Map

Scenario	Weight	Trigger	Path & target	Invalidation
Support retest and recovery	45%	During 00:00-07:30 UTC, price must trade into 1.11482-1.11500. The hold requires two consecutive M5 closes at or above 1.11505 within the next three M5 bars, with neither close below 1.11482. Entry: 1.11505-1.11520 after the second qualifying close. A confirmation outside that budget is passed. Expiry: 07:30 UTC.	First opposition: 1.11645-1.11658 target zone, combining the post-event H1 highs. From the worst entry at 1.11520, gross room to 1.11645 is 12.5 pips against 6.5 pips to the stop. If that zone clears, 1.11690 is the next separate objective.	Scenario close invalidation: one completed M5 close below 1.11470 after confirmation. Structural stop: 1.11455, placed below the 1.11482 consolidation low and the permitted retest band.
Resistance rejection	25%	Price must trade into 1.11645-1.11658, then produce one M5 close below 1.11635. Within the next two M5 bars, price must retest 1.11635-1.11655 and complete a second M5 close below 1.11635. Context-only, no entry.	First opposition: 1.11570-1.11579 target zone, combining the reference close with the earlier H1 close. The nearest opposition leaves too little defensible room for a stop above the full 1.11690 rejection high.	Structural invalidation: one completed M5 close above 1.11690. No executable stop is supported without placing it inside resistance or accepting inadequate room to the first opposition.
Support breakdown	30%	During 00:00-07:30 UTC, require two consecutive M5 closes below 1.11482. Within the next three M5 bars, price must retest 1.11482-1.11500 and fail with an M5 close at or below 1.11480. Entry: 1.11465-1.11480 after that failed-reclaim close. A confirmation outside the budget is passed. Expiry: 07:30 UTC.	First opposition: 1.11347-1.11378 target zone, the late-session pullback and H1 breakout base. From the worst entry at 1.11465, gross room to the zone's upper edge is 8.7 pips against 5.5 pips to the stop. If the entire zone fails, 1.11211-1.11221 is the next separate target zone, combining the prior daily low area with the event-hour low.	Scenario close invalidation: two consecutive M5 closes above 1.11500 after confirmation. Structural stop: 1.11520, above the failed-reclaim band and the prior consolidation closes.

Spread and slippage weren't supplied. They must be known at entry; otherwise the executable candidate is passed. The resistance-rejection branch remains context-only because its gross room is already too narrow before those costs.

Key Levels

• 1.11482-1.11500: Immediate support from the latest completed H1 low and post-spike consolidation.
• 1.11570-1.11579: Current reference and nearby H1 closing resistance, grouped as one target zone.
• 1.11645-1.11658: First upside target zone from the post-event H1 highs. The component gap is within the supplied 0.000303607 grouping limit.
• 1.11690: Event-rejection high and separate upside objective.
• 1.11347-1.11378: Existing structural support zone formed by the late pullback and H1 breakout base.
• 1.11211-1.11221: Deeper target zone from the prior daily low area and event-hour low.
• 1.11726: Daily breakdown boundary. Recovery above it would pressure the accepted bearish regime, but this Asia preparation doesn't change that regime.

Session Map

• 00:00-01:30 UTC: Tokyo cash open is at 00:00 UTC, followed by the Hong Kong cash open at 01:30 UTC. Let opening liquidity test a boundary. No entry is valid from a wick or a single close.
• 01:30-05:00 UTC: Use only the complete confirmation and bounded retest stated in the Scenario Map. A decisive reclaim cancels the active breakdown candidate; any later break starts a new candidate.
• 05:00-07:30 UTC: Require enough time and room for the first opposition. Pass confirmations outside their entry budgets or after their stated expiry.
• 07:30-08:00 UTC: Manage an already entered plan only. Do not open a new position. Every remaining candidate expires at the 08:00 UTC phase boundary.

No scheduled high-impact event falls inside the Asia window.

No-Trade Conditions

Do not trade inside 1.11500-1.11645 without one of the complete confirmations. Stand aside after opposing confirmed breaks if neither retest holds, when confirmation arrives outside its entry budget, or when the first opposition has already traded before entry. Unknown spread or slippage at the trigger means no entry. A candidate that hasn't completed its retest by the allowed bar count is expired, not left waiting indefinitely.

What to Watch — Invalidation

A completed M5 break below 1.11482 weakens the immediate recovery, but the mildly bullish phase lean is invalid only below 1.11347. Acceptance above 1.11690 shifts attention to 1.11726, where the broader bearish structure first comes under pressure. A move beyond either boundary must still complete inside the Asia window to affect this preparation.

Similar preparations

1. 2026-10-27 · Asia preparation — Preparation · Review Shared conditions: day type: range; ATR: within 25% of current. Differences: dynamics: current expansion, historical unknown; ATR: current 0.544557%, historical 0.569792%. Historical review assessment: hit (the journal’s assessment). Historical review excerpt: “Historical evidence correction Recorded: 2026-10-28T20:47:33.616Z The original preparation and original assessment are retained. This correction grades their frozen wording against verified completed candles after the confirmed public receipt; ambiguous activation or sequence remains unassessable. Original grade: hit; original leadScenarioHit: true. Corrected grade: hit; lead scenario status: hit. Public receipt: 2026-10-26T23:31:28.087Z Original preparation SHA256: e9262282be2ed71fa146f57a0734e344f7e0bdab6c3c416adf90873dd9933bf8 Original review SHA256: 78da3b130e2b85a4f701dbecfa8b748472d66725” Lesson from that review: “No explicit lesson recorded in this review.”

These few comparisons are context, not a win rate or evidence of a trading edge.